Stopping Duterte 2.0

A year to the day Rodrigo Duterte landed in prison in The Hague, people wondered: could his bloody crackdown on criminal elements happen again?

Without institutional reforms, they can. We might see this happen as early as 2028, if survey results are accurate and sustained. And if Ferdinand Marcos Jr. fails to prevent his worst nightmare from happening: Duterte 2.0.

Three years since the end of his presidency, the elements often raised by Duterte in his iron-fist approach to criminality remain firmly in place: a weak and compromised legal system; justice that moves at glacial pace; the best justice that money can buy.

He knew the rot in the system well, he told STAR editors at the start of his presidency, having served as city prosecutor, congressman, mayor and vice mayor of Davao City. He also understood the fear of ordinary people for their personal safety.

That fear is strong particularly in many parts of Mindanao where armed violence persists, with even a town mayor being attacked in broad daylight with an RPG fired at his SUV.

You can’t play nice with lowlifes, Duterte often said. And there are significant numbers of Filipinos who wholeheartedly agree with him.

Ironically for him, the failure of the justice system to hold him accountable for the thousands killed on mere suspicion of involvement in illegal drugs prompted the International Criminal Court (ICC) to step in and investigate him for murder as a crime against humanity.

Duterte’s statements threating to kill criminals had no “lethal intent” and mainly intended “to instill fear in the hearts” of criminals, his lawyer Nicholas Kaufman argued before the ICC.

And Duterte did instill fear, although only to a certain extent; drug dealers aren’t a scaredy bunch.

He also understood the fear of ordinary people for their personal safety, the insecurities and resentment that poverty can breed, and the disdain for the perceived elitism of the privileged class.

Such fears and concerns, whether real or imagined, cannot be taken for granted by those hoping to see NOTA – none of the above, whether Duterte or Marcos-Romualdez, or any of the entrenched clans – taking over the reins of government in 2028.

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Populists have exploited such fears and resentment, with often dire results. Adolf Hitler did it, with horrific consequences. Following Germany’s defeat in World War I, he tapped into people’s suffering and resentment of defeat, and rose to power on the promise of making Germany great again.

It must have inspired Donald Trump’s MAGA – make America great again – and his brutal crackdown on immigrants (although his immense wealth was not taken against him, and the way he grew it even enhanced his popularity).

Incidentally, the elder Ferdinand Marcos, at his inaugural speech as president on Dec. 30, 1965, also told Filipinos: “This nation can be great again.”

Promises of swift justice and elimination of neighborhood troublemakers are potent in a country where thuggery and armed violence reign, whether courtesy of criminals or insurgents.

Duterte is the only former president who claimed genuine sympathy at some point in his life for socialism, with friends in the communist movement led by Jose Maria Sison. The left did not dispute this so it must be true. The two men later had a nasty falling-out, and it was under Duterte’s watch that the communist movement suffered a grievous blow.

He tapped into public resentment that the rebels had turned into extortionist bandits who preyed even on the poor and kept out enterprises that would generate jobs and livelihoods especially in underdeveloped areas.

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A family driver told me that he left his impoverished village in Masbate to escape the endless harassment by both the New People’s Army and military. Villagers initially liked the swift justice offered by the NPA, he said. If a carabao was stolen, for example, barangay officials would sit on the complaints, while the NPA would find the thief ASAP, kill him and return the carabao.

But then the rebels would come around asking for rice and other items as support for the movement, the driver said, and it would come off as an order rather than a request.

If the military got wind of a household’s contribution, even if forced, to the rebel cause, soldiers would then punish the NPA “supporters” through various penalties including execution.

Such sentiments cannot be brushed aside merely as paranoia or baseless fears. Baseless or not, such fears must be decisively addressed by anyone trying to prevent Duterte 2.0 in 2028.

Vice President Sara Duterte, whose failure to get the defense portfolio created one of the early cracks in the UniTeam, has talked tough on the communist insurgency. She is a staunch supporter of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict and has openly accused several lawmakers of being part of the rebel movement. Like her father and several military officers, she denies engaging in red-tagging.

Sure, there are indications that Rodrigo Duterte could spend the rest of his life in Scheveningen Prison.

But if Filipinos put his daughter in charge in 2028, or someone in his mold when it comes to law enforcement, it will be his ultimate revenge.

Those celebrating Duterte’s arrest and detention must move to deprive him of the opportunity to say, “I told you so.”