Aligned

President Bongbong Marcos’ international visits have not only been about attracting investments to power our growth. They have also been about diplomatic and defense cooperation to help secure our exclusive economic zone.

In his state visit to the Czech Republic this week, Marcos sought Prague’s support for the modernization of our military, stressing our two countries “share the same values when it comes to adherence to international law.” The Czech Republic may be a small country, but it has a well-developed defense industry.

The Czech Republic supplies Ukraine modern weaponry to fight Russian aggression. Over the past month, Prague spearheaded a global initiative to procure direly needed artillery shells for the Ukrainians.

During his visit to Germany before heading to Prague, Marcos spoke forthrightly about the direction of his policy. In the face of heightened pressure in the South China Sea, he declared the Philippines would not be deterred and will “continue to do what we can do to defend our maritime territory in the face of perhaps a more active attempt by the Chinese to annex some of our territory.”

In the days preceding his latest diplomatic foray, Chinese ships stepped up their harassment of Filipino vessels out to resupply our outpost on Ayungin Shoal. They blasted the Filipinos ships with water cannons, injuring about four of our seamen.

Since he took office in 2022, Marcos has more closely aligned our foreign policy with the US-led alliance. He allowed more of our military facilities to be used for the forward deployment of American military assets. He sought a closer defense partnership with Japan and encouraged joint military exercises.

In his recent visits to Australia, Marcos highlighted the need for closer defense cooperation to maintain the peace in the western Pacific. We are procuring more warships from South Korea and, shortly after elections were held in Taiwan, Marcos congratulated the win of the democratic party there. That gesture, although conveyed through Marcos’ personal social media account, did not escape condemnation by Beijing.

At the Philippine Senate, a bill explicitly defining our nation’s maritime boundaries is ready to be passed. Beijing, too, took issue with this piece of legislation – although China appeared to be exercising veto power over our sovereign right to pass laws.

Beijing is surely unhappy over Manila’s closer alignment with the US, Japan and Australia. But they have, perhaps unwittingly, pushed us to this tighter embrace with our traditional allies by their ham-fisted strategy on the competing South China Sea claims.

This sharp realignment of our foreign policy is not due entirely to Marcos’ personal predisposition. It reflects the consensus of our diplomatic and defense establishments.

The distinctly pro-Beijing posture maintained during the Duterte years proved to be counterproductive for us. It estranged us from our traditional allies and made us vulnerable to China’s diplomatic and economic pressures.

Recall those days. Each time we spoke out of line, Beijing pressured us by constricting our exports, raising phytosanitary requirements for the tropical fruits we try to sell to the Chinese market. When we behaved, China gave us bridges. When we misbehaved, China stalled on project loans. We were entirely manipulated by Beijing.

We could not rely on China to fight off China. We could not rely on Beijing for diplomatic support if Beijing is our nemesis.

For years, as the confrontation over the contested areas simmered, “woke” Filipino groups preferred that we rely on ASEAN for diplomatic support. But, we know now, most of the ASEAN is not interested in supporting our position.

Just last week, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim put things most bluntly. He asked Manila not to drag Malaysia into its confrontation with China. His country, says Anwar, has no problems with China in the sea we share.

One would think Anwar would be a little more sympathetic to the Philippine position. He spent a lot of time at the UP during his student days and was often in Manila during those times he was persecuted at home.

But we should have known the score. Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore will stand firmly in the pro-Beijing camp. Vietnam and Indonesia will behave pragmatically according to their best interests. This is the reason why the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, deliberated on for years, remains unsigned by our peers in the ASEAN.

As far as the ASEAN countries go, we are the odd man out. Many of our peers do not understand the confrontational stance we have taken. They are not happy the South China Sea has become one of the world’s flashpoints.

If we want any defense and diplomatic support, we will have to look at the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, some of the European countries and possibly, over the longer term, India. The latter has her own territorial issues with China and nurses her own strategic fears about Chinese expansionism.

To consolidate our present strategic alignment, however, we might have to tone down on equating sovereign rights with sovereignty. We must, instead, highlight the necessity to keep the international sea lanes crisscrossing the South China Sea open.

There is greater benefit to be drawn from downplaying sovereignty claims and declaring the South China Sea an open zone. There should be more options down the road for more cooperation in this contested sea.

But China, too, should be prepared to soften its silly 10-dash line claim.