How fragile a state is the Philippines?

This online post by a Philippine Military Academy graduate, 1965, was relayed to Malacañang:

“I used to think the country is fast approaching a failed state. Now I’m convinced we’ve arrived at a failed democracy.

“[This is due] to Supreme Court inaction on the mandamus petition by TNT Trio. And Senate and House of Reps indifference to the admission by Comelec Chairman George Garcia that, in Sen. Koko Pimentel’s words, ‘Our entire election system is one large private network pala’.”

Fund for Peace rates “fragile,” formerly called “failed,” “states.” In truth, the Philippines improved in a list of 179. From 49th in 2021, it became 50th in 2022, then 61st in 2023.

Consistently 1st to 12th in those three years were strife-torn Somalia, Yemen, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Syria, Afghanistan, Sudan, Central African Republic, Chad, Haiti, Myanmar, Zimbabwe.

Always topmost were sturdy Norway, Iceland, Finland, New Zealand, Switzerland, Denmark, Canada, Ireland, Luxembourg, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia.

Ratings come every first semester, to encompass the previous year’s second semester events. FFP started researches in 2005. Published in 2006.

The Philippines’ 2023 jump reflected mid-2022’s transition from Rodrigo Duterte to Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

TNT Trio now assails Marcos Jr. and VP Sara Duterte’s purported landslide election. Most damning proof is Comelec chief Garcia’s admission in a Senate hearing. That is, 20,300 precincts transmitted within the first hour an incredible 38 percent of votes from one mysterious private IP address.

TNT Trio consists of former information-communication technology secretary Eliseo Rio, ex-Comelec commissioner Gus Lagman and ex-Finance Executive Institute president Franklin Ysaac. Computer experts, clergymen and retired generals and colonels back them.

But the PMA grad quoted above sees undemocratic inaction by the three branches of government.

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Given ongoing crises, can the Philippines stay at 61st? or will it drop as steeply as it rose from 50th?

The Philippines has had bumpy FFP ratings. From 59th among 177 states in 2008, it fell to 53rd in 2009 then 51st in 2010. Those three years witnessed massive corruption like the National Broadband Network-ZTE scam, the Maguindanao massacre of 58 journalists and a politician’s kinswomen and devastating typhoons.

Further drops: from 59th of 178 countries in 2013 to 52nd in 2014, onto 48th in 2015. Factors: the world’s worst Super Typhoon Yolanda and the Mamasapano massacre of 44 police commandos by Moro rebels.

Then, from 54th in 2017 to 47th in 2018. Reason: 7,000 killed in Duterte’s war on drugs.

Again, from 54th in 2020 to 49th in 2021, due to pandemic-induced hunger, joblessness and corruption.

Divide the 179 countries into three and the Philippines will be at the top of the bottom third. Just above Solomon Islands, Honduras, Eswatini, Papua New Guinea and Columbia.

Or, at the bottom of the middle third. Below Nicaragua, Timor-Leste, Guatemala, Tanzania and Lesotho. Recall that Filipinos helped Timor build a civil government after seceding from Indonesia in 2002.

FFP uses four rating categories:

• Cohesion – security against rebellion, terrorism, criminality; factionalized elites, clans, religions, races, ethnicity; political, judicial, communal exclusion; power struggles, election credibility;

• Economy – poverty, jobs, incomes, inflation, fiscal debt, business failures, devaluation, foreign investments; education and work opportunities; flight of the middle class;

• Politics – transparency and accountability; confidence in state institutions and processes; civil disobedience, insurgency; integrity of elections; corruption, profiteering; marginalizing or persecuting opposition groups; human rights, rule of law; provision of basic utilities;

• Social – access to safe water, food; disease, epidemics; high population growth rate or skewed distribution; environment and weather disasters; refugees, displacements; external hostility, disabling.

Where is the Philippines today? Moro secession is settled, but the Muslim autonomous region remains the poorest. Razed by Islamist extremists, Marawi remains un-rebuilt. Rody Duterte’s “Mindanao separation” can re-ignite Moro passions. Communist rebels have been licked, the Armed Forces declare, yet red-tagging persists.

Fifty percent of Filipinos call themselves “poor” and 30 percent “near poor;” hunger prevails (Social Weather Stations). Food prices are soaring, supplies dwindling.

Wages are low, workers seek overseas placements. The fiscal debt is ballooning. With little funding for education, low-income students flunk international exams in Math, Science and Reading.

Political dynasts reign: 75 percent of legislators, 85 percent of governors, 67 percent of mayors. Malacañang and Congress grant each other hundred-billion-peso pork barrels. A weak Opposition merely watches as ruling political factions combat.

Justice is for sale. Petty criminals go to jail; plundering politicos go scot-free. Automated elections are opaque. Investors judge the Philippines 116th most corrupt out of 180 countries.

Six million families do not own houses. The poor suffer floods, typhoons, droughts, landslides.

And China is bullying Filipinos out of their own fishing grounds and petroleum resources.

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