Lessons for the Philippines

The whole world is closely anticipating the imminent break of war between Ukraine and Russia. Many believe that it is a matter of few days, not weeks, before the bloodbath commences. In this age of global integration where all places appear to be near and all people from different societies are digitally connected, an armed conflict between nations is anathema. A full-scale and unprovoked aggression of a foreign army into the territory of a militarily inferior country is, by all standards, unacceptable.

Last ditch diplomatic and back-channel negotiations and confidential tussles among European, US and Russian leaders are surely running non-stop. President Joe Biden unequivocally warned that there would be serious financial and economic consequences if Russia proceeds with its plan to invade. Obviously, diplomacy is on the verge of collapse and is unable to prevent the eastern military superpower from flexing its muscle and proving that Russia is still around. Hopefully, this disastrous event will still be averted.

Ukraine is geographically far from the Philippines. But we have an existing seven bilateral agreements ranging from mutual aid, consultations and trade cooperation. More than 300 of our citizens live in this Eastern European nation. We must have timely insights on our own strategic situation in relation to our territorial dilemma in the West Philippines Sea and the still unsettled Sabah issue.

Cultural and people-to-people diplomacy. One of the most effective tools that builds strong bridges between countries is the sustained relationships between their citizens. The interactions, social networks, educational exchanges, religious affiliations and other cultural avenues create a broad infrastructure that allow peoples on both sides of the boundaries to value peace and harmony that can be enjoyed through generations. War has no place among friendly neighbors. Differences and tensions can be more easily diffused among partners.

Bilateral cultural relationships work well. Our country has official people-to-people efforts with each country in the ASEAN. I have been a witness and a participant in some of these exchanges. The “Ship for South-East Asian and Japanese Youth Program,” for example, brought together young and talented students from the Philippines, Thailand, Brunei, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore, Cambodia and Japan for the purpose of fostering understanding and friendship since 1974. Many more similar programs have been institutionalized to slowly strengthen the bond between our citizens.

Let’s not wait for our government to solely take the lead on this. Everyone who has the interest and capability to build these social bridges must contribute, such as civic clubs, student organizations, cultural associations and other organizations. Activities from these are both productive and can be fun.

Economic and public diplomacy. Trade and business relationships among neighbors provide long-term vested interests that would encourage nations to avoid conflicts because such will dampen economic growth and stability. Internal pressures from commercial power blocs would discourage political leaders from unduly rocking the trading ships. Instead, both the political and economic leaders must pursue a common agenda of prosperity that can be mutually attained by nations who cooperate with each other.

The art and science of wealth creation can be best successfully managed when the resources and competencies of countries synergize. Trade and political blocks such as the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) can be better empowered to protect their common material interest and lobby against external incursions. ASEAN has been occasionally criticized for being ineffective in safeguarding their common economic interest against other regional and global powers.

Hopefully, our country can benefit from more vibrant and effective regional blocs that can become the vanguards for progress. Can ASEAN be strong enough to impose a solution in the West Philippine Sea territorial disputes that involve its own members who have separate claims on the Spratly Islands?

War diplomacy. We must not be a warmonger. Neither shall we be afraid of it. However, we must be capable to defend our territories. Patriotism and heroism will not be enough to win armed aggressions. Indeed, as explained by the respected German strategist, Clausewitz, “war is an instrument of policy.” Hostile neighbors can dangle the possibility of war as a real leverage.

We have many heroes. We have countless patriots in our history. But we need more than them. We must have a credible armed forces. At present, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is undergoing a serious and systematic modernization. RA 10349, the AFP Modernization Law, was signed by President Benigno Aquino III on Dec. 11, 2012. This will ensure a 15-year program that will capacitate and equip our Army, Navy and Air Force with the most modern weaponry and equipment. The Revised AFP Modernization Program committed a P300-billion budget allocation that will authorize the acquisition of radar and missiles systems, modern integrated logistics systems (ILS) for new frigates and battleships, advance tanks, superior personnel carriers, movie-like fighter jets and combat helicopters, force protection gear and even stealth submarines. Soon, our AFP will be strong enough to regain the respect of other countries. Such strength can provide the necessary deterrence against foreign threats.

Moving forward with combined tools of diplomacy. Our neighbors, including China, will respect us if we effectively combine all the available forms and tools of diplomacy. First in the list is our ability to militarily defend our territorial integrity. They must understand that we will not budge an inch in the protection of our jurisdiction. Then, our social relationships will be the long-term shield that would give more premium on peace and mutual co-existence. And lastly, our formal and economic international institutions shall provide the incentives and frameworks on the wisdom of enjoying shared interests and long-term goals.