Might is not right

The conflict between the Philippines and China over territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea poses the greatest danger to our long term economic and political stability.

President Aquino recently ignited a  storm when, during a recent interview with the New York Times, he discussed the present situation and its similarities to  the situation in 1938 Europe  when world  leaders were trying to prevent a war with Germany, then a new and rising superpower.

In 1938, Adolf Hitler was the German Chancellor. First he invaded and annexed Austria and the Western Powers did not intervene. A few days later, Hitler said: “Czechoslovakia is next.” And in March 1938, Hitler said: “We must always demand so much that we can never be satisfied.” Hitler then demanded that Germany be allowed to annex Sudentenland, a province of Czechoslovakia.

Britain’s Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, met with Hitler and agreed not to oppose a German takeover of the province. The excuse was that by appeasing Hitler, war would be avoided and the world would have peace. The Czechs were forced to give up their territory. A small country was forced to give up territorial claims in an attempt to appease a big power.

Hitler instead invaded Poland and the Second World War started.

China has conflicting territorial claims with all its neighbors — Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. There have been many comments by regional leaders over the past few years about these conflicts, and many of them have actually been provocative unlike President Aquino’s remarks.

What exactly did P-Noy say? As far as I can deduce, the interviewer from New York Times was focusing on China’s growing military presence in the West Philippine Sea and the potential threat to the Philippines.

The interviewer, Keith Bradsher, was talking about the courage of a small group of Filipino servicemen on a grounded boat on one of the disputed shoals. Bradsher said that it was a touching story and one of the five most read in the New York Times last year. The title of the story was “Sharks and Minnows.”

Bradsher then asked if the Philippines can continue these kind of outposts in the face of China’s growing naval might. P-Noy’s reply was that to abandon these outposts would be to abandon the Philippine territorial claims which he could not do. Then P-Noy quoted a head of state who had told him the order of things where there are big states and small states.

This statement sounds very similar to a remark allegedly made regarding the maritime disputes at the 2010 ASEAN Security Forum by then China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi: “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, that is just a fact.”

It was at this point that P-Noy said his response to the head of state was: “I’m an amateur student of history, I remember the Sudetenland crisis in World War II, and I remember the words of the Czech – I think – Premier at that time. ‘And one has to ask the question, at what point do you say enough is enough?”

In clarifying his statement that there is a point when enough is enough, President Aquino also said: “Well the world has to say it, remember that the Sudetenland was given in an attempt to appease Hitler, to prevent World War II and it did not happen.”

When specifically asked whether the world should say “enough is enough” in terms of Chinese claims in the West Philippine Sea, PNoy clarified: “I guess what I am trying to say is we are all supposed to be civilized individuals, followers and adherent to international law. They voluntarily — I assume — joined the convention, the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas like we did. So what we are asking for is inasmuch as we respect your rights, is it too much to ask that your respect our rights? I guess that is the only issue.”

PNoy’s statements are a far cry from the explosive statements made by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in his recent appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Abe said he saw a “similar situation” between Britain and arising Germany in 1914 and the current tensions between Japan and China.

Abe said that the strong trade relations between Germany and Britain were not unlike the economic interdependence today between Japan and China. However, this economic self interest failed to put a brake on their rivalry that led to the outbreak of World War II. He also criticized the annual double digit growth in China’s defense budget, calling it a source of instability in the region. Anyone can deduce that Abe is saying that war between China and Japan is a possibility.

I asked Chito Sta. Romana, one of the leading international experts on China affairs for his personal take on the issue. This is what he said:

“But how comparable is China to Nazi Germany? Is the USA or the West appeasing China? Is war inevitable between a rising China and a dominant USA?

Though it is important to heed lessons from history, some caution is necessary in naming a historical analogy. The USA and China are currently engaged in both competition and cooperation, and how the situation will evolve will depend on strategic choices made by both countries.

The Chinese rejection of the comparison with Nazi Germany is largely based on the policy of peaceful development. But there is a growing credibility gap between China’s words and its assertive behavior in asserting territorial and maritime claims. And it is Chinese behavior that is arousing fear and alarm about its strategic intentions — and giving rise to the comparison with Nazi Germany. In the end it will depend on China to restrain its behavior and reassure its neighbors.

For the Philippines, there is no substitute for deterrence by building its defensive capability, improving its alliance with strategic partners, and strengthening the unity with ASEAN and the international community. But deterrence must also be combined with diplomacy and engagement – not only with its traditional partners but also with China. This is not the same as appeasement but rather it’s employing diplomacy to avert conflict and peacefully settle disputes.”

The world should listen to P-Noy that might is not right, and that the international rule of law should apply equally to all countries — big or small.

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