Pagasa: El Niño may start in 2 to 3 months

MANILA, Philippines — State weather officials are warning of the possible onset of El Niño within the next two to three months, with stronger typhoons expected as a result of the climate event.

“There is a big possibility that the El Niño will start within two or three months,” Ana Solis,  chief of the Climate Monitoring and Predictions Section of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said in a radio interview yesterday.

But apart from the long dry spell associated with El Niño, Solis said that the typhoons affecting the country during this time could also be stronger.

“Historically, the southwest monsoon season is enhanced by the onset of the El Niño,” she said, adding that extreme rainfall events can also be expected in the western section of Luzon.

On the other hand, there are places in the country that will experience the opposite. “Below normal rains will be experienced in the Visayas and Mindanao. The dry spell will be severe in these areas,” Solis said.

She also warned of possible grass fires in the country during the long dry spell.

“Here, it is usually grass fires although other countries like Indonesia are prone to forest fires,” Solis said.

She recalled how El Niño in Indonesia caused such a big forest fire that the haze reached other Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines.

Solis warned that the climate event could bring the water in the dams to critical levels, particularly in the last quarter of 2023 until the first half of 2024.

“In case there will be prolonged El Niño, the effect on the dams will be felt until the first quarter of the following year. As early as now, the water levels of the dams are already dropping,” she said.

As of 6 a.m. yesterday, the water level of Angat Dam dropped to 196.18 meters from its previous level of 196.40 m or a reduction of 22 centimeters.

The level of Angat Dam is still 9.25 m above its minimum rule curve elevation of 186.93 m, the level at which the dam is able to fulfill its functions.

Four other dams also suffered further reduction in water level: Ipo Dam in Bulacan at 98.86 m compared to its previous level of 98.87 m (1 cm less); La Mesa Dam in Quezon City, at 77.13 m, down by 2 cm from previous 77.15 m; San Roque Dam in Pangasinan, at 235.09 m, from its previous level of 235.36 m  or 27 cm less and Caliraya Dam in Laguna, at 286.75 m, lower by 27 cm from its previous level of 287.02 m.

Meanwhile, the highest heat index last Tuesday was recorded in Dipolog City, Zamboanga del Norte at 43 degrees Celsius.

Davao City, Legazpi City and Zamboanga City all recorded a heat index of 42 degrees Celsius, while Maasin, Southern Leyte felt the heat at 41 degrees Celsius.

Rice buffer

As Filipinos brace for the ill effects of El Niño, Sen. Risa Hontiveros called on the government to ensure that programs to support and protect families at risk of losing livelihoods and experiencing hunger during the dry spell are in place.

Hontiveros recalled that El Niño in 2016 was one of the factors in the violence that happened in Kidapawan City in Mindanao that left two farmers dead and dozens wounded.

“Maybe the economic managers should more rigorously justify why raising the stock of rice in National Food Authority (NFA) warehouses makes more sense than other programs that could protect families that might experience loss of livelihoods and hunger,” Hontiveros said.

“We must first make sure that there is dedicated aid for our poor countrymen. During the El Niño of 2016, the NFA warehouses were full, but the problem was that the poor had nothing to buy. The violence that happened in Kidapawan should not be repeated because the warehouses do not want to be opened for the hungry,” she added.

The senator said there are reports that sanitary and phytosanitary clearances have already been issued for more than three million metric tons of rice to be imported by the private sector and nearly one-third of this has arrived.  –  Cecille Suerte Felipe