'Rosal' intensifying as it moves out of PAR, expected to weaken

MANILA, Philippines — Tropical Storm Rosal is now less likely to bring heavy rains as it continues to move away from the country, though it is forecast to weaken into a remnant low in the coming days, state weather bureau PAGASA said Monday. 

In a bulletin issued 5 a.m. Monday, PAGASA said that though Rosal continues to intensify on its way out, it is forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow evening or on Wednesday early morning before dissipating a little after that.

According to government forecasters, the tropical storm was last seen 770 km East of Calayan, Cagayan moving northeastward at 20 kph and packing winds of up to 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 105 kph.

"Rosal is forecast to move generally northeastward until this afternoon before turning eastward for the remainder of today. During this same period, this tropical storm is forecast to maintain its present intensity, although a short window of slight intensification is not ruled out, which may potentially bring it to severe tropical storm category within the day," PAGASA said. 

"By tomorrow, Rosal will begin encountering increasingly unfavorable conditions associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon, which will result in rapid weakening and a southward to southwestward turn in its direction (as the monsoon surge begins to greatly influence its movement)."

The state weather bureau warned that the surge of the Northeast Monsoon partly enhanced by this tropical storm may bring occasional gusts reaching gale-force over Batanes and strong breeze to near-gale strength over Babuyan Islands, and the coastal and upland areas of Ilocos Norte, northern and eastern Cagayan, and eastern Isabela.

Consequently, Pagasa said that a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon as the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and the tropical cyclone may also bring moderate to rough seas over the seaboards of Central Luzon and the eastern and western seaboards of Southern Luzon.

"These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions," it said. 

Rosal intensified into a tropical depression over the weekend and was the 18th tropical cyclone to hit the country this year.

Forecast positions

• Dec 12, 2022 02:00 PM - 875 km East of Extreme Northern Luzon
• Dec 13, 2022 02:00 AM - 990 km East of Extreme Northern Luzon
• Dec 13, 2022 02:00 PM - 990 km East of Northern Luzon
• Dec 14, 2022 02:00 AM - 915 km East of Northern Luzon