DOH: NCR remains low risk for COVID-19

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Health (DOH) yesterday said Metro Manila remains to be at “low risk” classification for COVID-19, contrary to OCTA’s declaration that the National Capital Region’s classification has moved to moderate risk.

The DOH explained that a “moderate risk” classification requires a positive two-week growth rate (TWGR) and an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of at least six average cases per day per 100,000 population.

“As of June 15, 2022, while NCR shows positive TWGR, its ADAR is still below 6, at less than 1 case per 100,000 population. The NCR would require at least 818 cases daily for two weeks to reach an ADAR of 6 cases per 100,000 population,” the DOH noted.

Further, it said that NCR remains at low risk due to the low health care utilization rate (HCUR) and that a majority of cases do not require admission in health facilities.

“HCUR remains to be at low risk. At this stage of the pandemic, infections are expected. Most of them will be asymptomatic, mild, or moderate,” it said.

“What is important is the number of severe and critical hospital admissions. So long as these numbers remain low, we will stay at the current alert level while carefully monitoring the situation,” the DOH added.

In a television interview, Health Secretary Francisco Duque reiterated that even if an increase in COVID cases has been observed, it is not enough to mean an ADAR greater than six.

“The public need not worry yet. Even the HCUR has been pegged at less than 20 percent for now,” Duque said, adding that what is important is to continuously wear mask, observe minimum health protocols, be vaccinated and avail oneself of booster shots.

The DOH also appealed to the public to ensure that their information will come from official sources only, or else it may cause unnecessary panic.

Clarification

For its part, OCTA clarified that NCR remains at “low risk” despite the increasing number of new COVID-19 cases over the past weeks.

But OCTA fellow Guido David said their forecasts indicate that the classification is likely to change soon, citing the indicators that they use for risk assessment in the country.

Even with the possible shift to “moderate” risk classification, David said they are not recommending a shift to Alert Level 2, noting that a “weak surge” should be very manageable.

The OCTA fellow explained their risk classification is different from the one used by the national government to determine alert levels, saying it is based on COVID Act Now developed by Harvard Health Institute with Bloomberg.

Their assessment, he said, is based on the combination of health care utilization, positivity rate, average daily attack rate and reproduction number.

Earlier, David projected new cases in NCR may reach 400 to 500 per day by the end of the month. The region recorded 117 new cases on Wednesday, down from 126 the previous day.

Shortage

Meanwhile, Private Hospitals Association of the Philippines Inc. president Dr. Jose Rene de Grano is concerned about a possible shortage of health care workers should there be a surge in hospital admissions because nearly half of medical frontliners in private hospitals have already resigned.

“Our estimate is that 40 to 50 percent of our nurses resigned. We lost more than half of the previous number of nurses serving the country. What the private hospitals are now doing is that they try to reduce the number of available beds. But of course, the effect is that only few patients can be admitted. If we can double the present number, then that will be enough,” de Grano said.

“For now, though, we don’t feel yet the resurgence of COVID-19 cases,” he added. – Janvic Mateo