OCTA: Worst-case COVID-19 scenario is 'weak surge' in Metro Manila

OCTA: Worst-case COVID-19 scenario is 'weak surge' in Metro Manila
Commuters queue to board a bus at the EDSA Bus Carousel at Ortigas EDSA Station as MRT-3 halt operations for maintenance on Wednesday, April 13, 2022.
The STAR / Walter Bollozos

MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila's COVID-19 reproduction number — a term that refers to the number of persons a COVID-19 positive individual can infect — now stands at 1.05, indicating that Metro Manila's low-risk status may only lead to a "weak surge" in COVID-19 cases at worst, the OCTA Research Group said Tuesday. 

In an advisory issued Tuesday morning, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said that a reproduction number above 1 does not necessarily mean that COVID-19 cases will surge. 

"Overall, NCR remained at low-risk. Over the next few weeks, the best-case scenario is status quo, while the worst-case scenario, based on current data, is a weak surge in COVID-19 cases," David said. 

Other figures are also encouraging. According to David, the average daily attack rate, which tallies the number of infections per 100 people, remained very law at 0.52 as of May 23. The daily positivity rate was at 1.2% over an average of 11,319 tests per day, while hospital care utilization for COVID-19 was at 21%. 

David was also careful to point out that the last two times the reproduction number increased to more than 1 were during the start of the Omicron and Delta surges in December 24 and July 15, 2021. 

This comes after the Department of Health confirmed the local transmission of the BA.2.12.1 Omicron sub-variant in the country, triggering anxieties of yet another uptick in coronavirus cases.

Though the country is still shielded by a surge of magnitude by its vaccinated population, the government's Vaccine Expert Panel took the position that the uptick could translate to up to as high as over 500 cases per day in the worst case scenario. 

The DOH has recorded more than 3.68 million COVID-19 cases since the pandemic started in 2020. — Franco Luna


As It Happens
LATEST UPDATE: June 6, 2022 - 5:12pm

Bite-sized updates on the emerging coronavirus Omicron variant outbreak and third wave of the pandemic in the Philippines. — Photo by The STAR/Miguel de Guzman

June 6, 2022 - 5:12pm

The Philippines logged 599 severe and critical COVID-19 patients in hospitals on June 5, DOH sayd.

Out of the 2,632 ICU beds reserved for COVID-19 patients, only 386 (14.7%) were occupied.

From May 30 to June 5, there have been 1,295 new COVID-19 cases in the country. The daily average is now at 185.

March 15, 2022 - 10:13am

The National Capital Region remains the region with most new COVID-19 cases as of March 14, 2022, according to data from OCTA Research.

Metro Manila logged 141 new COVID-19 cases on Monday.

Among provinces, Cebu registered the most new cases with 57, followed by Iloilo with 56, Cavite with 23 and Rizal with 23.

March 7, 2022 - 9:16am

Among highly urbanized cities in Luzon, Puerto Princesa is the lone city that remains at moderate risk for COVID-19 due to very high testing positivity rate, OCTA Research says.

As of March 6, NCR, Baguio City, Naga City and Santiago were at low risk.

Meanwhile, Angeles, Dagupan, Lucena and Olongapo improved to very low risk.

March 5, 2022 - 4:40pm

The Department of Health logs an additional 941 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the national caseload to 3,666,678.

As of Saturday, there are 49,374 active cases.

March 4, 2022 - 4:27pm

The Department of Health reports 853 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the national tally to 3,665,747.

To date, there are 50,230 active cases.

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