OCTA: New COVID-19 cases trending downward in NCR, Calabarzon

MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon and Rizal are all now at moderate risk with COVID-19 cases still trending downward, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Tuesday. 

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Guido David, citing data obtained from the Department of Health, said that Metro Manila's average daily attack rate of 19.58 and positivity rate of 17% were still good for high risk classification. 

However, he said, the capital region had also registered a -62% growth rate in cases as of January 31, while the healthcare utilization rate remained at just 38%. 

"The goal in the NCR is for the positivity rate to decrease to less than 10% within two weeks," he said, adding that cases have already peaked in most parts of the country. 

NCR, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon and Rizal at moderate risk as of Jan 31, with new cases trending downward. The goal in NCR is to reduce positivity rate below 10%. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @allangatus @dzrhnews @News5PH @ali_sotto @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @PhilstarNews pic.twitter.com/8lZoaZ1mNT

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 31, 2022

"There are only a few areas where the surge is accelerating...[Omicron] has already caused transmission in many places. I don't think it's no longer a major concern since we've attained some level of population immunity against Omicron."

The pandemic think tank also said that the reproduction number in Metro Manila, which refers to how many individuals one positive case can infect, stands at 0.45.

This comes after small surges in the National Capital Region over the past week. 

Of the 14,546 cases recorded around the country on Monday, 4,040 came from Metro Manila. Manila City and Quezon City again topped the list with 861 and 838 news cases, respectively. 

According to David, provinces still seeing a significant growth rate in new cases include:

• Bukidnon
• Camiguin
• Cotabato
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao Occidental
• Davao Oriental
• Maguindanao
• Negros Oriental
• Sarangani
• South Cotabato
• Sultan Kudarat