OCTA pushes for 90% vaccine allocation in NCR for herd immunity
MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research on Wednesday proposed that 90% of the country's vaccines be allocated to virus epicenter Metro Manila, in a move to control the surge there and prevent it from further reaching other regions.
Fellows of the panel were at the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum this morning, where they stressed that it could help provinces as much of their infections also come from Metro Manila.
"Think about it as the head of the snake," said Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, who is a molecular biologist. "If you want to kill the pandemic, you have to cut the head off. The reason why cases are rising in the other regions is because there are cases moving from NCR."
The Dominican priest said the remaining 10% of the jabs could be allocated to the provinces for senior citizens and health workers.
In their developed model, he said COVID-19 can be contained in Metro Manila by inoculating 40% to 50% of its adults. This would mean 6.21 million vaccinated out of the estimated 13.8 million population, with 12.42 million doses.
"What you see here is the attack rate falls below 1 in 100,000," he said. "This is the first step in ending the pandemic, when you have containment especially if your senior citizens are vaccinated. Then we can really reopen the economy and allow our people to go back to work."
For NCR to reach herd immunity, Austriaco said it would entail 9.7 million individuals vaccinated, or 70% to 80% of the population there.
He added that this can be achieved by Christmas if vaccinations are at 200,000 a day.
Another OCTA fellow, Prof. Ranjit Rye, said their new recommendation recognizes that the Philippines' vaccine supply remains limited to date. He said the key should be to optimize the jabs.
"Given the importance of Metro Manila as an economic hub, given the reality that it is also the epicenter of the epidemic..we feel that prioritizing it for now will be a very good strategy," he said. "Much of the infections come from this place. It's moving to the provinces so it's to the advantage of the provinces.
Latest government figures on Wednesday showed a national seven-day average of 108,540.
Some 392,553 in NCR are now fully vaccinated, while 937,824 got their first dose already.
The Department of Health announced today too that it will prioritize the vaccination of essential workers and indigents in NCR and eight other areas deemed as high risk.
"You win the battle in the National Capital Region, you win the war against COVID-19 for the whole country," Rye added. "I hope government will take politics out, put in the science and encourage, exhort our private sector and civil society to get on the same page and achieve something this year as far as vaccination is concerned."
- Latest
- Trending
