Consumer confidence down, but seen to improve next year

MANILA, Philippines -  The confidence level of Filipino consumers for the current and next quarters continued to head south due to the steady rise in prices of goods and services as well as the economic slowdown in the first quarter of the year, results of a survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

BSP’s Department of Economic Statistics (DES) director Rosabel Guerrero said in a press conference yesterday that Filipino consumers were more optimistic in the coming year as more respondents expected economic growth to pick up in the second half of the year after slowing down in the first quarter.

“For the year ahead Filipino consumers turned more optimistic even with the economic slowdown in the first quarter,” Guerrero said.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga earlier reported that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed down to 4.9 percent in the first quarter of the year from the revised 8.4 percent in the same quarter last year due to government underspending and weak global trade.

The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) sees the country’s GDP expanding between 7.0 percent and 8.0 percent this year after growing by 7.6 percent last year.

The Philippines was on the verge of a recession after its GDP growth slackened to 1.1 percent in 2009 from 3.8 percent in 2008 due to the impact of the global financial crisis.

Guerrero pointed out that the country’s economic growth would pick up in the second half of the year with the likely end of the conflicts in the Middle East and Libya as well as the recovery of Japan from the ravages of the March 11 tsunami.

“Filipinos believe growth could accelerate in the year ahead,” she said.

BSP acting deputy director Teresita Deveza reported that the 2nd Quarter 2011 Consumer Expectation Survey (CES) showed that consumer confidence index further plunged to -24.1 percent in the second quarter of the year from -23.1 percent in the first quarter.

For the next quarter, Deveza said the consumer confidence index further declined to -7.8 percent in the second quarter from -6.2 percent in the first quarter.

“The current quarter outlook stemmed from the counterbalancing of the number of respondents that reported higher family incomes with those that indicated that they were negatively affected by the high cost of petroleum products and higher prices of goods and services,” she stressed.

She explained that the outlook for the current quarter mirrored the steady sentiment of consumers in Germany, France, and New Zealand.

She said the steady rise in the prices of fuel products and other commodities dampened the sentiment of Filipino consumers on the economic condition to -41.9 percent in the second quarter from 36.8 percent in the first quarter.

However, she said the consumer confidence in family financial situation improved to -22.4 percent from -23.7 percent while that of family income also improved to -7.9 percent from -8.9 percent as more Filipinos anticipate additional incomes due to good harvest and more jobs available in the second quarter.

For the next 12 months, Deveza said the confidence in economic condition improved to -15.3 percent.

Consumer confidence for the next 12 months improved to 4.4 percent in the second quarter from 1.2 percent in the first quarter of the year as Filipinos were more bullish in the year ahead on expectations of stable prices, better employment opportunities, and increase in salaries.

“Coming from a relatively modest 4.9 percent growth of the economy in the first quarter of 2011, consumers’ more optimistic outlook in the year ahead indicated expectations of acceleration in economic growth going forward,” Deveza said.

She said more Filipino consumers expect interest and inflation rates to go up in the next 12 months due to the steady rise in oil prices and in the prices of basic commodities.

The survey was conducted from April 18 to April 30 and covered 5,889 respondents all over the country.