Int'l Energy Agency: EV adoption gains policy, fuel-cost support

From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves

Event

The International Energy Agency sees Philippine EVs reaching up to 45% of car sales by 2035 under its Stated Policies Scenario, versus about 10% in 2025. The outlook depends on sustained import duty exemptions, excise tax relief, and follow-through on EV industry incentives.

View

In our view, the forecast highlights a widening gap between policy-supported adoption and affordability-constrained demand. The current policy path could accelerate EV penetration, especially as higher fuel prices make energy-efficient vehicles more practical for households and fleet operators.

Catalyst

Key sensitivities include battery costs, charging infrastructure, financing options, and incentive durability. If import duty exemptions remain until 2028 and fuel prices stay elevated, we think EV sales could compound strongly, though affordability may limit mass adoption outside higher-income buyers.

Action

We think auto investors should watch EV mix and market share shifts closely. GTCAP's Toyota benefits from hybrid strength, but competition from Chinese EV brands (Ayala Corp's BYD) could reshape pricing and margins. Longer term, energy, charging, and battery-linked infrastructure become relevant investment themes.

Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.