Semirara Mining in Q1: Prices recover, volumes lag
From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves
Event
SCC reported 1Q26 net income of P3.8 billion (-12% YoY, +21% QoQ), below our estimates, driven mainly by weaker power earnings from unplanned outages. EBITDA declined 6% YoY, but margins held at 41%.
View
Coal segment income was flat at P2.78 billion (+9% QoQ), supported by firmer ASPs (+13.5% QoQ) after a prolonged downtrend. However, exports declined 4% YoY on timing-related factors and softer export demand.
Catalyst
Power dragged by outages. Segment income declined 31% YoY to P1.1 billion as plant availability fell to 67% (from 89%), with outage days more than doubling to 117, driving a 22% decline in generation and sales.
Action
We continue to see a constructive pricing environment for coal and power, supported by fuel switching and tighter regional supply conditions. Near-term earnings will depend more on outage normalization and timing of shipments, while the delayed COC process extends the regulatory overhang.
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