Earnings Recap: 4Q recovery masks soft full year, beats still scarce

From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves

Event

FY25 earnings broadly in line, with 12 ahead, 10 in line, and 2 below. Market cap-weighted growth closed at 8.3%.

View

Earnings dispersion remains wide, with banks and ICTSI leading, while consumer and conglomerates were mixed, and EMI (-38.9%) a notable drag, highlighting uneven demand recovery.

Catalyst

Quality of beats remains limited, with much of the improvement driven by cost discipline and pass-through, rather than volume growth, indicating operating leverage is still constrained.

Action

Recovery remains narrow and not yet index-driven, reinforcing our selective overweight stance (BDO, BPI, ICT, PGOLD, MWC), while staying cautious on consumer discretionary, property, and weaker conglomerates.

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