GT Capital's Q4 2025: Behind expectations, macro drives upside timing
From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves
Event
4Q25 net income reached P4.5 billion, -33% YoY and -42% QoQ, taking its FY25 core net income to P30.47 billion, +8% YoY. This is behind expectations as it only accounted for 96% and 97% of street and AB Cap’s FY25E, respectively.
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Toyota remains the best performer as net income grew 19% YoY, followed by Metro Pacific’s core net income growth of 15% YoY. MBT posted a net income growth of +3% YoY, AXA’s contribution was flat. Federal Land remained a drag.
Catalyst
Management signaled a more cautious stance for 2026, highlighting risks from oil, FX, rates, and geopolitics, alongside domestic policy noise. Focus is on more resilient formats, expand TMP’s electrified lineup, and increase infra exposure.
Action
Dividend payout remains conservative, suggesting returns will be driven more by earnings recovery than yield. Risk-reward is balanced, with meaningful upside dependent on a turn in the macro cycle and a recovery in property earnings.
Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.
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