WTF is happening now?

A quick recap of what happened overnight.

> Trade war:  The meeting between Trump and Carney (Canada) was bizarre, unsettling, and unproductive [link]. The US Secretary of Commerce said that he will meet with China’s Vice Premier in Switzerland for talks on May 10 and 11 [link].

> Real war:  In response to a terrorist attack, India attacked Pakistan with “precision strikes” [link]. Pakistan called the strikes an “act of war” and authorized “corresponding” retaliation [link]. This is the latest in a long-standing dispute between the two nuclear-capable countries.

> Oil:  Prices are recovering (somewhat) from the lows that followed OPEC+’s decision to roll back production cuts faster than previously announced.

  MB BOTTOM-LINE:  While US/China negotiations could take months (or otherwise a lot longer than we expect), I will be watching Trump to see if he’ll try to use some of his patented dollar store diplomacy to try an exert bombastic bluff leverage because “aRt oF tHe dEaL”. The India/Pakistan conflict is troubling, but I haven’t seen a lot of (coherent) analysis yet on how that conflict could expand, and what impact that expansion could have on neighboring countries or global trade. The US markets seem to be unreasonably optimistic about the May 10 meeting with China. Still waiting for those first empty shelves. ETA for the first shortages appears to be around May 10. Coincidence or realpolitik?

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