‘GDP likely grew by 4.6% in Q4’

MANILA, Philippines —  The Philippine economy is expected to expand at a faster pace in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, but growth will likely remain below five percent, according to the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P).

“We anticipate Q4 (fourth quarter) 2025 GDP (gross domestic product) growth to accelerate to 4.6 percent (year-over-year), up from four percent in Q3 (third quarter),” UA&P said in its The Market Call Capital Markets Research report released yesterday.

This is lower than the 5.3 percent fourth quarter growth forecast provided by UA&P last month.

“Weaker sentiment following the Q3 GDP reading appears to have spilled over into Q4, with October-November economic indicators noticeably soured,” UA&P said.

It cited the Philippine purchasing managers’ index, which slid into negative territory to 47.4 in November from the previous month’s 50.1.

This was the weakest level seen for operating conditions in the manufacturing sector since August 2021.

UA&P also cited the October unemployment rate, which rose to five percent from the previous month’s 3.8 percent and 3.9 percent a year earlier, amid bad weather and the ongoing corruption probe that slowed infrastructure spending.

On the other hand, UA&P said lower inflation, increased overseas Filipino worker remittances and exports are expected to support growth in the fourth quarter.

Lower interest rates and a rebound in government spending are other factors expected to support fourth quarter growth.

“These should encourage stronger consumer spending and boost employment toward year-end,” UA&P said.

It also said that while the peso is likely to approach P58.50 by year-end, it may weaken again in early 2026.

Earlier, Department of Economy, Planning and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said that it is difficult to achieve the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth goal for the year amid challenges including governance issues that continue to affect investor sentiment.

Average economic growth from January to September stood at five percent, below the government’s target for the year.