DOF: 2025 GDP growth to fall way below target

MANILA, Philippines — The country’s economy is now projected to settle at a growth rate of as low as 4.7 percent this year, according to the Department of Finance (DOF), a figure that falls short of the government’s official target range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent, and signals a weaker-than-expected economic performance.

Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said the economy is expected to grow by 4.7 to 4.8 percent, but added that the country remains fundamentally strong as foundations are stable.

“We are not blind to the challenges, nor are we shaken by them. What you see today is not a leadership crisis, but a government reforming itself from within,” Recto said.

The expected full-year growth is the lowest since the pandemic period in 2020, when the country’s economy contracted by 9.5 percent. Excluding the pandemic, it is the lowest since 2011’s 3.9 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth, according to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority.

Based on the revised target of the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordinating Committee, GDP growth was previously projected to settle at 5.5 to 6.5 percent this year. The target has already been adjusted downward from the earlier projection of six to eight percent.

Recto added that, moving forward, the DOF will focus on advancing good governance reforms and coordinate closely with Congress to eliminate all unprogrammed appropriations, except those essential to address emergencies.

”We are also intensifying our fight against tax evasion and smuggling. The Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Bureau of Customs will aggressively pursue major cases with time-bound investigations and swift prosecution,” he said.

Recto further noted that the economy is showing clear signs of progress, with improved stability providing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas greater leeway to lower interest rates, a move expected to stimulate household spending and economic growth.

”Our fiscal consolidation path is on track and everything moving forward is on the upside. We will bring down our deficit and debt gradually, while creating more jobs, increasing our people’s income and lifting more Filipinos out of poverty,” he said.

Data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed that the country’s deficit is higher by 15.15 percent, at P1.12 trillion from January to September this year, compared to P970.2 billion in the same period last year.