Firing up the economic engine

The World Health Organization (WHO) last week declared that lockdowns must be lifted strategically, and culling from the words of Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, “so that we can get people back to work, get these economies going back again as quickly as possible.”

A number of governments have responded by setting guidelines for the partial lifting of quarantines. In Spain, one of Europe’s hardest hit countries by the coronavirus infection, part of its labor force was allowed back to work amidst tight health sanitation precautions.

Spanish authorities have been very cautious, and insist that the lockdown imposed a month ago has not been lifted, with schools remaining closed as well as most shops, bars, and restaurants. Spain, like Italy, France, and the UK, still have about 100,000 active cases each.

Still, many countries, including the United States, are grappling at how they would be able to exit from their lockdowns without raising the possibility of reinfection, and straining their hospital and health network resources once again.

The Philippine government faces similar constraints even while the WHO has categorically stated that countries with lower numbers of cases and complying with a published six-point criterion can already begin easing restrictions.

Prioritizing businesses

A decision to extend or partially lift any lockdown is expected this week, but what is more important is how the government will prepare for a resumption of economic activity that will involve naming businesses allowed to restart operations.

For sure, the tourism and travel sectors will be hardest hit as new norms dictate people to do just essential tasks like buying food or medicines when going out. Dining in restaurants or fast foods outlets, an activity that Filipinos love, will likely continue to be discouraged.

In essential businesses that will be named, employees who can work from home will be encouraged. On the shop floors, however, social distancing and heightened health safety measures will restrict the number of people working on any given shift. This will translate to lower throughput, and overall, bad business.

Even under a modified lockdown, the number of business carcasses will be mortifying, especially in the micro, small and medium enterprise levels. For sure, there will also be dislocations and new alignments among big businesses.

Still, a modified lockdown is far better than a total lockdown where there is almost no economic productivity, where joblessness is forced on almost everyone in the population and consumption levels are strained to the barest minimum.

The last 30 days has given the government enough time to pinpoint infection sites, to isolate and contain them as well as determine treatment protocols. This extension period should be a time to validate all the data so far gathered to draft guidelines for an easing of quarantines.

The plea of the man on the streets must be heard. This time around, they may not die of the coronavirus infection, but of hunger.

Essentials in easing

In easing lockdown measures and allowing more people to go back to work, local governments must adopt strict health mitigation measures, including the use of facemasks and practice of social distancing. In the case of the latter, big gatherings should be discouraged.

Local governments down to the barangay levels must impose disinfection standards for all kinds of transportation services, from tricycles to jeeps, taxis, buses, trains, boats, ships, and planes. Inability to comply should correspond to suspension of operating permits.

Opening small stores, service facilities like salons and barbershops, laundry, and bakeries, should be encouraged as long as enough health safety measures are adopted in their operations. A number of best practices available from countries that have returned from lockdowns should help.

Let mall owners suggest a system whereby unnecessary loitering within their facilities is discouraged, especially now that the school season has officially ended. Under a modified lockdown, unnecessary trips and events should continue to be discouraged.

Best proven method

As the country progresses to a “new normal” environment where social distancing, extra precautions on health and sanitation, and restricted movement for non-essential purposes continue, getting prepared for any possible relapse should already be top of mind.

Until a vaccine is found, the protocol of testing, isolation, and contact tracing (TICT) is still the best proven weapon that has allowed affected economies to continue with economic activities, even if not at the former pre-contagion pace.

Lockdowns have shown that, the bigger it is, the costlier for people. The country – and the world – cannot afford to fall into a depression.

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