Commentary: Trump and the Philippine economy

Suddenly, the world is in a feverish mood with the coming rule of Donald Trump as the president of the most powerful nation of the world.

What is at stake in the presidency of this person many have dubbed an oligarch? What does the rest of the world await with the reign of this person who has been labeled a racist and sexist?

Americans and people of different nationalities alike have apprehensions over the international policies that will be formed with this president who practically discriminates against non-Americans and people of color.

Locally, I have yet to hear predictors or “soothsayers” put forth positive expectations for the Philippines with the Trump administration.

Speculations are ripe that joblessness is in the offing because of the US president-elect’s slogan and drive that America is for the Americans. Foremost is the possibility that call centers and business process outsourcing firms will leave the country.

It should be noted that 80 percent of BPOs in the country are mainly based in the US. Furthermore, despite being deep in crisis, the US is by far still the Philippines' biggest investor.

Are these speculations with basis or a mere product of people’s paranoia? 

It is worth noting that America is dubbed the bastion of democracy, where the freedoms of expression, speech and movement are exercised without fear or hesitation.

America, with all its resources, has never gone into total bankruptcy even during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the protracted recession of the 1980s, financial crisis of the 1990s, the financial meltdown of the early millennium, and the economic crisis under Obama.

That crisis was inherited from the Bush administration and will still be inherited by President-elect Donald Trump. 

The US has always shown its support to financially debt-ridden nations through its sponsorship of international funding agencies like the IMF and World Bank. And this was displayed and implemented many times in the past.  

As a seasoned businessman who has long established an image of entrepreneurial success, Donald Trump knows it will take more than a directive for foreign-based American business to "return to barracks" to abandon their offices abroad.

In the first place, there is no policy or law that prohibits American investors from locating where they deem it profitable. To force them back to their country of origin is not only a violation of their rights but also unethical for international diplomacy.

If other presidents before Trump couldn't do it, it is even less likely with Trump who knows the nitty-gritty of investment than all the others before him. 

Local apprehensions and uncertainties on capital flight are vague and without basis considering American investment in the Philippines is only a small fraction of their total investments across the world.

Consider also that diplomatic relationships between the Philippines and the US may be aggravated in case American investors pull out, which the incoming US president fully realizes and should never risk.

Allowing American investment to stay, will greatly improve the strained relationship between the two countries. Even Trump, in one of his campaign speeches, acknowledged the strategic alliance between the US and the Philippines and has blamed President Barack Obama for the strained ties.

The Philippine economy stands to benefit from the Trump administration because of cordial pronouncements from President Rodrigo Duterte that his administration is willing to cooperate with Trump's.

US President-elect Trump, with his vast resources and his ability to impose his authority and leadership, is expected to boost the world economy, which includes his real property investments that he made in the Philippines.

Despite the baseless speculations of political disarray with Trump as the 45th president of the United States of America, it will turn out to be a regime of enlightentment for the world economy.

Former political nemesis Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, has expressed his willingness to work hand in hand with Trump and bring back harmony between their countries. With two powerful nations and their influential leaders leading the way for a better and a peaceful world, expect something big that will be reaped not only in our local shores but internationally as well.

Emmanuel J. Lopez, Ph.D. is an associate professor at the University of Santo Tomas and the chair of its Department of Economics. Views reflected in this article are his own.

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