Why UN court’s decision is good news for Duterte & why FVR is an ideal envoy

Is it true our new President Rody Duterte’s daily news announcements are already beating the viewing ratings of TV networks’ teleseryes? Many people look up to reformist, fearless, honest and astute President Duterte like a Marvel comics supe-hero who can tackle our many woes like illegal drugs, crime, graft, traffic jams, poverty and damaged ties with our traditional friend China. I also share this bullish sentiment on Uncle Digong (which Philippine STAR reader and DZBB radio host Jimmy Gil told me is the President’s favorite nickname).  

I’ve been asked what I think of this seemingly intractable territorial crisis, following the Philippines’ legal victory at the Hague’s Arbitral Tribunal and China’s continued physical occupation of various isles of the disputed Spratlys.

These are some ideas I’ve shared with GMA’s Raffy Tima, ABS-CBN’s DZMM host Alvin Elchico and foreign media, based on my research and from analyses I’ve heard from experts.

• The Arbitral Tribunal’s decision can make Duterte a hero of diplomacy. Apart from the Arbitral Tribunal’s decision favoring the Philippines being a boost to the country’s morale in general and not causing frustrations among our citizenry, the timing of its release on July 12 at the start of Duterte’s presidency is very providential. Why?

Duterte can be a hero of Philippine diplomacy, especially in stark contrast to the past six-year decline in our bilateral ties with the world’s second largest economy, a row that has sparked turbulence with other ASEAN neighbors. Instead of populist bluster or quarrelling with China, whereby we lose out economically to our ASEAN neighbors, Duterte can use cool and adroit diplomacy to restore our diplomatic and economic ties.

He could remind Beijing that it was not he who filed this case; our government’s public response to this decision was also sober, with Duterte saying beforehand that we wouldn’t “taunt or flaunt” this universally expected legal victory. Therefore, Duterte has a golden opportunity to restart high-level bilateral talks to repair our historic relations and help our Philippine economy gain tangible advantages such as more tourism, trade, infrastructure projects and investments. Please get us a high-speed train project.

• Why FVR should accept a post as special envoy, even just to break the ice. Duterte’s July 14 choice of ex-President Fidel V. Ramos as a special envoy is a masterstroke, because. FVR has prestige as one of the country’s most accomplished leaders and this appointment also signifies Duterte giving great importance to repairing our damaged bilateral ties.

FVR said that his advanced age and hectic commitments might prevent him from undertaking this mission, but I disagree. Ex-President Ramos doesn’t have to go the full distance of this expected diplomatic marathon of negotiations; he just has to go on one goodwill trip to break the ice of the past six years’ cold war between Manila and Beijing.

I disagree that he is too old. I am almost half FVR’s physical age but he can still do more push-ups than me, he can charm the pretty young ladies better than most younger guys with his charisma and good humor, and he has the sharpest intellect!

• Duterte’s independent mindset has the respect of most Asian leaders. Whether it’s among our ASEAN neighbors or even Beijing’s leaders, the well-known independent mindset of reformist and nationalist President Duterte is viewed as a big advantage for his diplomatic maneuvers and his credibility. In fact, the President has an even more solid reputation as a genuine nationalist in the mode of Jovito Salonga, Lorenzo Tañada, Jose Diokno or Claro M. Recto, unlike the mere political cunning of the likes of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo or Ferdinand E. Marcos.

We should ideally maintain historic good ties with our American ally, but the increasing military presence of the US all over the Philippines has also been cited as a possible thorn in Philippine-China ties due to perceived threats to the security of China’s economy and densely-populated coastal cities. These views were expressed by analysts at our recent Pandesal Forum such as maritime expert Ambassador Alberto Encomienda; Professor Bobby Tuazon, Dr. Temmie Rivera and Prof. Roland Simbulan of the University of the Philippines (UP) and the CenPEG think tank; former Undersecretary Butch Valdes; strategic analyst Celso Cainglet; former Philippine diplomat in Washington D.C. Ado Paglinawan; columnist Rod Kapunan; TV host Herman Tiu Laurel; businessman George T. Siy of the Integrated Development Studies Institute (IDSI).

The July 14 Max Fisher column “The Explainer” in the New York Times also said: “Beijing considers the South China Sea an area of traditional Chinese influence… Something Americans often miss is that for China, this is in part defensive. The history of Western imperialism looms large. Chinese leaders often distrust the United States’ intentions, and consider their country to be the far weaker party. Extending Chinese control is a way to stave off perceived threats. This insecurity also contributes to Chinese skepticism of international institutions such as the South China Sea tribunal, which Chinese state media portray as a plot to weaken China.”

Duterte has the credibility to assure Beijing leaders that he wouldn’t allow our country to be used as a frontline foot-soldier in the perceived fierce USA-China strategic rivalry and that he is negotiating on behalf of Philippine national interests only.

• Mindanao’s first president can retrace state visit of Sulu Sultan 600 years ago. I reiterated that this spat over uninhabited islets and shoals (with yet unproven mineral or energy resources) constitutes just a miniscule aspect of the wide-ranging, broad and long history of friendly diplomatic, cultural, trade and even kinship ties between the Philippines and China. For over a thousand years, the interactions between the Philippines and China have never been marked by war or colonization.

We should remind China too that both our countries were allies during World War II, and historical records show that China’s leaders aided Philippine revolutionaries in our struggle for independence against Western colonizers in the late 19th century. The ethnic Chinese minority also has a long history of supporting the Philippine Revolution and the war of resistance against Japanese military occupation.

Next year, 2017, also marks the 600th anniversary of the state visit of the Sultan of Sulu and his 350-people delegation to Beijing to visit the Ming Dynasty Emperor of China. Isn’t it providential that we in the Philippines now have our first national leader from the same Mindanao region as the Sultan Sulu? On his own state visit, maybe President Duterte can even pass by the mausoleum of the Sulu Sultan in Dezhou City, Shandong province (where the sultan was honored by his friend the Ming emperor due to the former’s death due to illness)?

I believe that not only can Rody Duterte achieve near superhero status in his war against illegal drugs, crime, corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies, he can also become the leader with the credibility, the wisdom and the diplomatic skills to win peace with our Communist and Moro rebels as well as with our old friend China!

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