Breakthrough for Meralco?

MANILA, Philippines - Since entering the PBA in 2010, Meralco has never advanced to the finals. The Bolts came closest twice, finishing third in the 2012-13 Governors Cup and fourth in the Commissioner’s Cup last season.

Now, Meralco appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough. Tonight, the Bolts battle Alaska in Game 3 of their best-of-5 semifinal series, which is tied at a win apiece, at the Smart Araneta Coliseum. Meralco coach Norman Black is determined to make up for a woeful showing in the previous conference where the Bolts finished dead last with a 1-10 record.

In the ongoing Commissioner’s Cup, Meralco got off to a hot 5-0 start and wound up the eliminations with its best ever record of 8-3. The Bolts secured their highest seeding ever for a conference playoff, No. 2 with a twice-to-beat advantage. It’s Meralco’s 12th playoff appearance in 17 conferences. The Bolts needed just one game to eliminate NLEX in the quarterfinals and became the first team to qualify for the Final Four.

Although import Arinze Onuaku isn’t as versatile as Alaska’s Rob Dozier, he’s a fit for Meralco. Onuaku is lumbering, slow and awful from the line but he’s a frightening interior presence, something the Bolts lacked before the former Syracuse center came along. Black made a few lineup tweaks this conference aside from bringing in Onuaku – he activated Ken Bono and cut Gary David to elevate Rey Guevarra.

This conference, Meralco has beaten Alaska twice in three meetings. In the eliminations, the Bolts beat the Aces, 107-101, surviving a spate of turnovers and claiming the decision with more assists, 18-12 resulting in a higher field goal percentage, 45-41. Alaska drew first blood in the semifinals, 97-94 even as the Bolts had more rebounds, 39-31, more assists, 18-15 and more inside points, 50-38. The difference was the Aces played a calculating and tactical game, generating more possessions by forcing 22 turnovers and scoring 28 points off those miscues.

Meralco and Alaska are on top of the league standings in field goal percentage. The Bolts are No. 1 in least rebounds allowed while the Aces are No. 1 in most opponents’ turnovers. So when they face off, the team that is able to create more possessions has the edge. That means if a team dominates the boards and has less turnovers, the probability is it wins. The presumption is both teams score at a high clip.

In Game 2 the other night, Alaska led, 70-61, entering the fourth period. Then Black applied the winning formula in the last 12 minutes. Meralco had more rebounds, 12-8 and less turnovers, 3-4 to take more shots at the basket, 12-7. The Bolts also delivered more assists, 7-3, to hit at a higher field goal percentage, 12-of-21 for 57.1 percent to Alaska’s 7-of-17 for 41.2 percent. Meralco outscored Alaska, 31-17, in the payoff quarter to win, 92-87.

Black’s adjustments in anticipating a double on Onuaku paid off. Instead of forcing dangerous crosscourt passes towards the weak side, Onuaku looked to dish in a two-man offense on the strong side. He found Jared Dillinger open twice for three-point baskets with the adjustment. When the defense kept a man home on the strong side, Onuaku passed to cutters on the inside. As a result, Onuaku played more efficiently and compiled 22 points, 14 rebounds and six dimes.

Black also exploited the mismatch advantage with Dillinger at three and Chris Newsome at two. Calvin Abueva couldn’t decide whether to sag off on Dillinger or tighten up and the indecision proved costly. Because Dillinger positions himself beyond the arc, Abueva gives up space in straddling to help out on the boards and in doubling Onuaku. Once Abueva allows a good look, Dillinger will pop. It happened in Game 2 as Dillinger found the range from three-point distance, connecting 5-of-10 treys.

The Aces felt the absence of Vic Manuel and Jvee Casio in Game 2. R. J. Jazul, who erupted for 18 points in Game 1, couldn’t get going with only four points in Game 2. If Casio was in harness, Alaska could’ve weathered Jazul’s off-night. Manuel’s absence meant one less defender on Reynel Hugnatan who got away with 21 points in Game 1 and 15 in Game 2. With Manuel nursing a strained calf muscle and unable to play for another week, Abueva has had to work double-time on defense. Sonny Thoss got into early foul trouble in Game 2 and constricted coach Alex Compton’s rotation.

Jimmy Alapag hit a crucial triple in the fourth period of Game 2 and provided a big lift down the stretch. He finished with 8 assists. His leadership will come in handy with the Aces expected to bounce back in Game 3.

Onuaku and Dozier hardly match up one-on-one but in critical moments, they won’t back off from each other. Dozier, 30, was Miami’s second round pick in the 2009 NBA draft but never played in the majors. Onuaku, 28, was never drafted but got to suit up for Cleveland and Minnesota. Their styles are like night and day. Onuaku, who holds the field goal percentage record of 64.8 at Syracuse, is a low-post center while Dozier plays multiple positions from three to five. Dozier’s 87-inch wingspan is a distinct advantage.