Coronavirus: Worse than terrorism

World Health Organization (WHO) director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned nations against the threat posed by the coronavirus outbreak, saying it can have far more powerful and deadly consequences that are worse than any terrorist act. I can truly believe that.

From an initial risk assessment of “high,” WHO has changed the category to “very high at a global level” as the coronavirus continues to spread, now affecting close to 50 countries across three continents. Among the new cases reported are in New Zealand, Lithuania and Nigeria – the third country in South Africa to report cases of the infection after Egypt and Algeria. 

While it has not been officially ruled as a pandemic, WHO has admitted that the virus has “pandemic potential,” adding that its spread could get “out of control.” According to latest reports, over 84,000 cases of COVID-19 (the official name of the virus and the disease it causes) have been confirmed while the number of deaths has reached 2,867 as of this writing. 

Leading global forecasting and quantitative analysis organization Oxford Economics has warned that the virus could cost the global economy an estimated $1.1 trillion in lost income as the disease continues to spread in regions outside of Asia. According to the consultancy group, the $1.1 trillion drop – equivalent to 1.3 percent in global GDP – would be similar to losing the annual output of Indonesia which is the 16th largest economy in the world.

The virus already has a chilling effect on many nations, with many businesses being forced to close down especially with manufacturing facilities in China – where the coronavirus originated – ceasing operations. 

A lot of industries and sectors are feeling the crunch, among them tourism. In London for instance, tourist operators are reeling from the loss of tourists especially from China where close to 780 million people have been in some form of lockdown or quarantine, both official and self-imposed. 

According to estimates, there are 180 million Chinese with passports, representing a huge potential for the travel industry.  All across the world, flights from China are being cancelled because Chinese tourists are forced to stay home because of the outbreak. Tour groups and cruise lines are also canceling trips due to decreased demand as many countries have imposed both inbound and outbound travel to and from countries where coronavirus infection have been confirmed. Even France – one of the most popular destinations – is projecting a 30 percent to 40 percent cutdown on tourism, which accounts for nearly 8 percent of the nation’s GDP.  

Not surprisingly, a lot of hotel bookings especially in Asia continue to be canceled, while international conferences, conventions and seminars are also being postponed, if not altogether totally shelved. The coronavirus outbreak has also triggered speculations about the cancellation of the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, although organizers as well as International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach have indicated that they are continuing preparations and will hold the games as planned in July.

No doubt, people’s activities including that of students, are getting affected. All Disneyland theme parks in Asia – in Shanghai, in Hong Kong and now in Japan – have been closed to prevent the coronavirus infection from further spreading. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also ordered the closure of all schools for the whole of March, leaving parents especially the working ones shocked and unprepared because they will need to arrange for babysitters or people to look after their children.

While saying the World Health Organization is not inciting panic, the agency’s health emergencies program executive director Mike Ryan did not mince words when he said that what is happening is “a reality check for every government on the planet: Wake up, get ready, this virus may be on its way and you need to be ready. You have a duty to your citizens, you have a duty to the world to be ready.” 

No doubt the coronavirus outbreak is one clear example of why nations have to coordinate, cooperate and work together to combat a global threat which has been characterized by the WHO as something worse than terrorism, telling leaders they should see it now as “public enemy number one.” 

Past histories of pandemics show that isolationist measures will not work, more so at present with transmission proving to be rapid and unpredictable considering that the world is “getting smaller” due to connectivity in terms of information sharing and exchange, with travel having been made more accessible and many businesses operating on a global scale. 

Nations must adhere to the 2005 International Health Regulations that call on countries to work together to save lives and livelihoods that are put at risk by the international spread of diseases. One important lesson we must all learn is the importance of information sharing. The coronavirus is a clear example that no country – regardless of ideology or political persuasion or nuclear power – is safe or exempted from the disease, with the United States, Iran, South Korea, China, North Korea and Japan confirming cases of infection. 

The disease does not also discriminate in terms of political power as shown by Iran’s top officials that include the vice president and deputy health minister who tested positive for coronavirus infection. “This virus is a democratic one, and doesn’t distinguish from the rich or the poor, those in power and those not in power,” said Iraj Hairichi, the deputy health minister of Iran where 26 people have been reported dead – the highest death toll outside China.  

Health is wealth. No matter how wealthy a nation is – like China is today – wealth can easily dissipate without health.

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