Learning from the 1992 and 1998 presidential polls

If the presidential wannabes for 2022 refused to learn from the mistakes of past presidential contests, then they are condemned to repeat them. If there are too many candidates, the votes are bound to be fragmented, and the winner will just have a plurality, not a majority. We shall be led again by one who doesn’t have the popular mandate of over half of the total registered voters. In 1992, there were 32.14 million registered voters. The winner only got 5.3 million. In 1998, there were 33.87 million registered voters. The winner got 10.72 million. 1998, with only three candidates, was better than 1992, which had seven.

In 1992, seven candidates ran, resulting in a president with just a little above five million votes from 32 million registered voters. The rumble was among FVR (Lakas), Miriam Defensor Santiago (Peoples' Reform Party), Danding Cojuangco (NPC), Ramon Mitra (LDP), Imelda Marcos (KBL), Jovy Salonga (PDP-Laban), and Doy Laurel (NP). President Cory, a non-traditional politician, supported her Defense Secretary FVR and abandoned Mitra, a loyal friend of Ninoy. The rest is history. If not for her support, FVR would have been defeated by Cory's own DAR Secretary, Santiago. Mitra placed fourth and his debacle brought down Chief Justice Marcelo Fernan, who resigned to run as VP.

The result was a president with lowest percentage in Philippine history, FVR with 5,342,521 votes (23.58%) over Santiago's 4,469,173 (19.72%) despite all the government resources marshalled by Cory for FVR. There were charges of cheating in Mindanao allegedly aided by the military but it was never proven. Danding got 4,116,378 (18.17%) and Mitra 3,316,661 (14.65%). Had Santiago been supported either by Danding, Mitra, or both, FVR would not have won. Fifth placer was Imelda with 2,338,294 (10.32%), sixth Salonga with 2,302,123 (10.16%) and the tail-ender was Cory' poor vice president, Doy Laurel with only 770,046 votes (3.4%). FVR's teammate, Lito Osmeña was beaten by Danding's bet, Erap Estrada who got 6,739,738 or more votes than FVR. Fernan placed second, ahead of Osmena by more than 1.1 million votes. It was a tragedy; a brilliant chief justice from UP beaten by a college drop-out from Ateneo.

1992 was also the year Bill Clinton, an Arkansas Democrat, defeated the one-termer George HW Bush, a Texan Republican. That victory was also helped by a third candidate who ran as an independent, Ross Perot, also from Texas. Clinton got 44,909,889 popular votes and 370 electoral votes, winning 32 of 50 states, including Washington DC. Bush got 39,104,560 popular votes and 168 electoral votes. He won in only 18 states. Perot got a respectable 19,743,851 and zero electoral votes. Had Perot ran in the Philippines he would have won with 19 million votes. If Perot didn’t run at all, Bush might have won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College just the same. That's the problem with the US system. In 2016, Hillary won over Trump by more than 3 million votes but lost in the Electoral College.

In 1998, Erap, Joe de Venecia, and Raul Roco slugged it out. Roco was like Perot. Erap was like Clinton. JDV was strongly backed up by the president FVR. Erap won with 10,722,295 votes (39.86%), practically winning in all provinces except Cebu, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Zamboanga del Norte, and the Caraga region. These exceptions went to JDV, except Bicol which was dominated by Roco. JDV only got 4,268,483 (15.87%) and Roco with 3,720,212 (13.38%). So, even if the votes of JDV and Roco were combined, Erap would still win. But Erap's vote was less than 50%. Thus, even with his popularity, he was a mere plurality president.

One other lesson to learn is the phenomenon of too many voters not voting, and too many invalidated ballots. In 1992, registered voters were 32,141,079 but only 24,254,954 actually voted, or 7,886,125 voters abstained. Only 22,654,198 were counted as valid votes or 1,600,759 invalidated. In 1998, registered voters were 33,873,665 but only 29,285,775 voted while 4,587,890 abstained. Only 26,902,536 were counted as valid votes and 2,383,239 were invalidated. Comelec and the Filipinos should learn from all these areas for improvement. The candidates should also think hard before running. We should all learn from the lessons of the past, else we shall be condemned to repeat the same mistakes.