Super El Niño, super trouble

The thermometer reads 30 degrees Celsius as I write this but it feels way hotter than any measuring tool can calculate – scorching, dry and furnace-like.

I know because just a few minutes ago, I was out on the street for an errand.

Yet, months ago, I desperately wished for the sun to come out because the rains and the flooding continued – day in and day out – like a clingy lover who refused to leave your side long after a break-up.

But now, just 15 minutes under the morning sun and I am bone-dry and dehydrated. It is unusually hot this morning, and it’s looking to be a portent of things to come.

The super El Niño is coming – and with a vengeance, it seems.

This looming climate catastrophe has made headlines across the globe:

Time Magazine: How should you prepare for a super El Niño? (Aug. 31, 2026).

The New York Times: The Super El Niño is about to unleash weather chaos. Get ready now. (Sept. 27, 2026).

Financial Times: El Niño’s looming threat to the global economy. (Aug. 26, 2026).

The Washington Post: The ongoing El Niño has officially reached record levels. (Sept. 21, 2026).

The good news is that the government is aware of the problem. Agencies have been dishing out press releases about it – from the state weather bureau to the Department of Agriculture.

“We are now more prepared,” says Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., noting the DA has stocked up on more food and made advance purchases of key commodities, including rice, as well as fertilizer and other agricultural inputs.

The government has beefed up the DA’s war chest by P6.2 billion, meant for fuel subsidies and other assistance to help farmers, fisherfolk and truckers of agricultural products cope with the higher fuel costs.

But El Niño isn’t just the DA’s problem, nor just the PAGASA weather bureau’s concern.

It’s everyone’s problem – you, me and everyone we know.

As such, we need a whole-of-nation approach, including the private sector, and us, in our very own households.

The first step is to recognize what could be an upcoming worldwide catastrophe and heed the lessons from 1877, that historic super El Niño, which saw a 16-month temperature spike that resulted in 50 million deaths.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that causes the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to become much warmer than usual.

I learned while doing my research on the topic that the name comes from Spanish for “the Christ Child,” because Peruvian fishermen first noticed the warm ocean current around Christmas time.

If the warnings are true, the consequences of the climate pattern will likely be felt across the world.

Says the World Economic Forum:

El Niño’s peak strength may be uncertain, but the direction of risk is not.

Governments, companies and aid agencies alike must prepare for what could prove to be a major systemic shock in order to mitigate any potential impact.

WEF cited the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, which estimates a more than 80 percent probability that El Niño will start between May and July 2026, and a 96 percent probability it will persist into early 2027. The consequences will be far-reaching.

A hotter planet

Climate change deniers will, of course, continue to stay in denial but it is happening.

WEF said that should the 2026-27 event develop as forecast, it could strike a hotter planet already facing brittle food systems, fragile public finances, stressed energy markets and growing geopolitical instability.

“It will also likely test the resilience of institutions already operating close to their limits.”

The health implications

The health implications are also just as serious.

“In already hot regions, El Niño can push temperatures beyond safe thresholds for outdoor workers, older people, children and those with chronic illnesses. Heat also degrades sleep, productivity and learning, and strains health systems at the same moment they may be facing infectious disease outbreaks, smoke inhalation or malnutrition,” WEF said.

In this light, El Niño should be seen as much of a public-health threat as a climate hazard.

Lessons from history

As I said, a quick search shows that the 1877-78 El Niño was among the strongest ever on record.

The WEF said this triggered simultaneous droughts across Asia, Africa and Latin America and contributed to the Global Famine of 1876-78, in which an estimated 50 million people died.

Let’s hope our policymakers will look back at history and realize that climate shocks can really wipe out swaths of the earth and its people when combined with hunger, denial and weak government response.

I am crossing my fingers that the Marcos administration will be competent enough to face the crisis head on.

Hopefully, after the flood-control scandal, the corrupt and unscrupulous individuals in the bureaucracy and in Congress will have grown a conscience and stop stealing funds meant for disaster response.

In our very own households, we can also start preparing for El Niño by using water wisely, fixing leaks, pipes and toilet fixtures and keeping electricity consumption under control.

We must also prepare for health-related risks.

To put it simply, let’s learn to live a little more carefully, making every drop of water count.

The heat is on no doubt and it’s all up to us to get ready.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow her on X @eyesgonzales. Column archives at EyesWideOpen on FB.