4,000 daily COVID-19 cases seen by end-October if decreased compliance continues
MANILA, Philippines (Updated 6:59 p.m.) — COVID-19 infections may reach 4,000 to over 8,000 by the end of October if compliance with public health safeguards like wearing face masks and maintaining physical distancing continues to decline, the Department of Health said Monday.
DOH Epidemiology Bureau Director Alethea De Guzman said in a briefing that data as of mid-September showed that cases were expected to “follow a continuous slow downward trend.” FASSSTER, a web application for creating disease models for diseases and for visualizing syndromic surveillance, projected 1,204 cases a day by the end of the month under this scenario.
However, if compliance with minimum public health standards continues to decrease, infections may range from 4,055 to as high as 8,670 by the end of October.
The Department of Health has yet to issue new minimum public health standards since the Philippines relaxed rules on wearing face masks, but, in general, the department has emphasized vaccination, wearing masks in indoor and crowded areas, frequent hand washing, better ventilation, and separate entry and exit points in high traffic areas to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
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The health agency reported 16,017 cases from September 26 to October 2. The figure was 10% lower than the number of cases reported from a week before.
The country remained at low risk for COVID-19 spread. Metro Manila, meanwhile, kept its moderate risk classification for virus transmission.
De Guzman added the projections of the Australian Modeling Network (AuTuMN) showed that “even with case increases, severe and critical cases are not seen to exceed those previously observed during Delta and Omicron spikes.”
“However, with the emergence of a new variant, this may lead to sharp increase of hospitalization at the beginning of 2023 in the National Capital Region,” De Guzman added. The official stressed the effects of a possibly more transmissible new variant may be minimized by COVID-19 vaccination.
Vaccination uptake has slowed down after the country immunized 80% of its target population in February 2022. Only 26% of the target individuals have gotten booster doses.
“As we continually lift restrictions and as mobility further increases, occurrence of cases and periodic spikes are inevitable. But vaccination will be central in ensuring minimal hospitalization with severe disease and as well as deaths,” De Guzman said. — Gaea Katreena Cabico
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