‘Leni’s trust rating declines in Q1’

MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Leni Robredo suffered a 13-point decline in her net trust rating in the first quarter of 2018 and further lost votes in the ongoing manual recount of the Supreme Court (SC), sitting as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET).

UPDATE: 'This is fake news': Robredo calls out report claiming she lost over 21,000 votes

Based on the Social Weather Stations (SWS)’s March 23 to 27 survey released yesterday, 58 percent of adult Filipinos expressed “much trust” in Robredo while 18 percent expressed “little trust” in her, resulting in a net trust score of +39, classified by SWS as “good.”

The remaining 23 percent of Filipinos were undecided.

The survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults 18 and above nationwide.

The Vice President’s latest net trust score was down by one grade from very good +52 (66 percent much trust, 14 percent little trust) net trust rating she obtained in December last year.

Her net trust rating was a moderate +29 when SWS first surveyed it in December 2015.

Losing votes

As this developed, an insider revealed that Robredo’s lead over her closest rival in the 2016 vice presidential elections, former senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr., was reduced by over 21,000 votes as of yesterday after four weeks of the revision of votes.

This means the margin of votes between Robredo and Marcos of 263,473 in the official tally during the canvassing has been cut to about 242,000, according to the source, who requested anonymity for lack of authority to speak for the tribunal and due to the gag order issued on the case.

Apart from the 50-percent threshold applied by the tribunal for the recount that initially cost Robredo over 5,000 votes, the significant deduction in her lead was attributed to “other votes deemed not acceptable under PET rules.”

The PET denied the plea of Robredo for the 25-percent threshold to be applied in the ongoing manual and instead set the threshold at 50 percent.

The Vice President appealed the ruling and the tribunal sought comments from Marcos and the Commission on Elections.

The PET recount, which started last April 2, has so far covered only one-sixth of the total precincts in the three pilot provinces so far after one month of the manual recount.

Specifically, revisers have completed 16 towns of Camarines Sur – Baao, Balatan, Bato, Buhi, Bula, Camaligan, Canaman, Ocampo, Gainza, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Magarao, Pili, Presentacion, Sangay and San Fernando – after four weeks of manual recount.

They have yet to complete the revision in 17 more towns and two cities in the home province of Robredo.

Apart from Camarines Sur, the two other pilot provinces identified by Marcos in his protest against Robredo were Iloilo and Negros Oriental. All three provinces cover 5,418 clustered precincts. 

It will determine the basis of the tribunal in deciding whether there is substantial recovery of votes to proceed with other provinces contested by Marcos. 

In his protest, Marcos contested the results in a total of 132,446 precincts in 39,221 clustered precincts covering 27 provinces and cities.

Several questions have been raised during the first month of the PET revision of votes due to various issues like wet ballot boxes, among others.

 Most popular in the Visayas

By area, Robredo’s net trust rating remained very good in the Visayas and moderate in Metro Manila. However, it fell by one grade from very good to good in balance Luzon and in Mindanao, the SWS said.

It remained very good in the Visayas, despite dropping by eight points to +56 (70 percent much trust, 13 percent little trust) in March 2018 from +64 (77 percent much trust, 13 percent little trust) in December 2017.

It also stayed moderate in Metro Manila, although down by four points from +27 (51 percent much trust, 24 percent little trust) to +23 (52 percent much trust, 28 percent little trust).

However, it fell by one grade from very good to good in balance Luzon, down by 15 points from +56 (68 percent much trust, 12 percent little trust) to +41 (56 percent much trust, 15 percent little trust).

It also dropped by one grade from very good to good in Mindanao, down by 18 points from +50 (63 percent much trust, 13 percent little trust) to +32 (55 percent much trust, 23 percent little trust).

Robredo’s net trust rating fell by one grade from very good to good among non-elementary graduates, down by 20 points from +66 (72 percent much trust, six percent little trust) in December 2017 to +46 (62 percent much trust, 15 percent little trust) in March 2018.

It likewise dropped from very good to good among high school graduates, down by 16 points from +51 (65 percent much trust, 14 percent little trust) to +35 (56 percent much trust, 21 percent little trust).

It fell by two grades from good to moderate among college graduates, down by 14 points from +43 (62 percent much trust, 19 percent little trust) to +29 (50 percent much trust, 21 percent little trust).

The survey has sampling error margins of plus or minus three percentage points for national percentages, and plus or minus six percentage points each for Metro Manila, balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.