New leadership

KUALA LUMPUR – After it was confirmed yesterday morning that North Korea had fired a missile that landed near the Japanese island of Hokkaido, the big question was how Tokyo would react.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, after all, is a hawk. As of yesterday afternoon, however, the response was cautious, with Japan and treaty ally the United States reportedly discussing sanctions against Pyongyang rather than military action.

Japan’s role in regional security, however, is coming under increasingly closer scrutiny amid threats posed by North Korea and China.

Also fueling the scrutiny is US President Donald Trump’s “America first” policy, which could bode a weakening of US influence and security involvement in Asia. But the policy remains vague, and Trump’s military commanders have reassured regional allies that the US will maintain its presence in the region. Trump’s “fire and fury” warning to Pyongyang was also seen as a step away from isolationism.

Still, the volatility of Trump’s policies is causing uncertainty in Asia. Can another country step up to the plate and play a prominent security role? Specifically, is Japan prepared to fill in the void, if one is created by Trump’s America?

At the third Japan-ASEAN Media Forum held in this Malaysian capital over the weekend, this question kept popping up. For Asia, can Japan be a more reliable and responsible partner, and an alternative to rivals America and China?

The Japanese participants in the forum – from the organizers to the journalists – seemed to have a common reaction to this: “Who, moi?”

I suspect they reflected the sentiment of ordinary folks in their country.

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Several things are preventing Japan from taking on a prominent security role in the region.

Among these are Japan’s capability and willingness to take on the role. Even if Abe has expressed openness to increasing defense spending and letting the Japanese military function as a “normal” armed force, their economy – despite being the world’s third largest – may not be able to sustain it. Any shift in the role of the Japanese armed forces may also require an amendment of their unique pacifist constitution, and ordinary citizens seem cool to the idea.

Despite being overtaken by China as the second largest economy and tepid growth, Japan remains prosperous, with one of the world’s highest per capita GDP. The Japanese can afford to sit back and enjoy their prosperity, to literally stop and smell the flowers.

Japan is itself also embroiled in a maritime dispute with China, in which Tokyo has the upper hand, occupying islands in the East China Sea with US support.

Another obstacle is lingering distrust of the Japanese in countries such as South Korea, where people have long memories and the older generation in particular cannot forget Japanese wartime atrocities.

Among younger Asians, however, post-war Japan has a generally benign image. It is seen as a major source of development assistance and job-generating investments, a survivor of a nuclear holocaust, pacifist and non-aggressive (except in waters it shares with China). Japan has captivated the world with its healthy cuisine, its technology and video games, its distinctive art and even manga comics and anime.

Best of all, for countries like the Philippines, Japan has not been building artificial islands and militarizing them in waters that can never be considered part of its 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

A media participant asked if China is capable of moral and responsible leadership. As Japanese journalists at the forum stressed, however, their country is not trying to contain China. In fact, like the United States, Japan has deep economic and other ties with China. Japanese businessmen, forum participants were told, were in fact worried about being left out of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

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Tokyo’s reluctance to act in the face of aggressive Chinese activities in the South China Sea, however, could mean ceding regional leadership to Beijing.

In the early 1950s when Japan’s per capita GDP was just $108, the country propounded a so-called flying geese paradigm, in which a prosperous Japan would pull the rest of the region in its wake. Among the geese following the lead goose was China.

The past three decades, however, has seen China flying ahead of the rest of the formation and now threatening to cast aside the lead goose.

As journalists at the forum (not from the Philippines) stressed to the Japanese participants, it would be in Japan’s self-interest to hold on to that lead.

A media participant noted that others in the formation, including the Philippines, have three options: they can oppose or resist China’s growing influence, work out an entente with Beijing, or be pragmatic and join the Chinese sphere of influence. Because of the uncertainty over Trump’s policies, aligning with China is becoming more attractive for certain countries.

One journalist at the forum, however, observed that Trump is not an isolationist but a unilateralist: it’s my way or the highway. The journalist noted that US defense spending has in fact gone up under Trump. He has committed to continue US military involvement in Afghanistan. And he has matched his “fire and fury” rhetoric against North Korean provocation with economic sanctions. The journalist believes Beijing is bound to feel the heat from Trump’s Washington.

In our little corner of the planet, the ideal situation is for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to police its own region and tell all foreign devils to stay out. But we know the reality: as the US becomes a reluctant global cop, China has succeeded in dividing and ruling ASEAN.

President Duterte raised a valid point, when pressed about why he was taking his time raising with his Chinese friends the ruling of the UN arbitral court, which favored the Philippines and invalidated Beijing’s entire nine-dash-line claim over the South China Sea: why didn’t the US do anything to stop China’s island building?

Probably because the US, whose economy is inextricably linked with China, was waiting for the arbitral court ruling – and a specific request from the winner for help in ensuring compliance by all parties – before it would act.

Instead of a request for assistance from its treaty ally, then US president Barack Obama became the recipient of all the cuss words in Filipino, courtesy of his newly elected Philippine counterpart. Duterte said Yankee go home and instead embraced China.

So far, Filipinos aren’t going along with Duterte, but he articulated a perception that Uncle Sam intends to scale down its presence in the region and go home.

The region needs new leadership. Is Japan prepared to be the alternative?