Coup rumors

The revolt that toppled the Marcos dictatorship in 1986 was preceded by rumors of a coup. During the Aquino administration, rumors of a coup often turned out to be true. Mutinous soldiers tried seven times to unseat Corazon Aquino. One early plot code-named "God Save the Queen" was foiled before it could be launched, and led to the sacking of Juan Ponce Enrile as defense chief. The coup attempts ended during the administration of Fidel Ramos after he forged a peace pact with rightist rebels. But the rumors resurfaced in the final months of the Ramos administration amid efforts to amend the Constitution.

Now the rumors are back, abetted by groups calling for the resignation of President Estrada. Several of these groups belong to the radical left which did not take part in the EDSA revolt and do not care to distinguish between a dictator and a democratically elected President. With an overwhelming mandate in 1998, this President is unlikely to resign, despite his plummeting ratings in popularity surveys. The President's supporters point out that two years is too short a period for deciding that a Chief Executive must be replaced, that he has a constitutionally guaranteed tenure of four more years.

In this country, however, where there's smoke, there's usually fire. Those who dismiss rumors of a coup point out that there's no group organized enough to launch a putsch at this time. But most are in agreement that there are disgruntled elements in the uniformed services. Malacañang can publicly laugh off coup rumors, but there's no harm in checking out the reasons for this disgruntlement.

A reformist military clique during the Marcos regime complained of favoritism, promotions based on patronage, corruption and an overall lack of professionalism in the ranks. A number of these reformists were hardly paragons of professionalism in the military and police. But their group had valid complaints that eventually helped ignite the EDSA revolt.

Before a charismatic individual emerges to lead the disgruntled soldiers and cops in this administration, the government can find out their concerns and address them. Coup rumors may just be coffee-shop talk at this time, but it's better to put out a small blaze before it turns into a conflagration.