Phoenix waiting to pounce

Phoenix won’t know which team to face in the quarterfinals until Alaska and NLEX settle their claim to No. 8 in a knockout game in the PBA Philippine Cup at the MOA Arena tonight.

NLEX, Alaska and Columbian wound up the eliminations in a three-way tie for the eighth spot with identical records of 4-7. Under PBA rules, only one knockout game will be played to break any tie involving eighth place. Columbian has the lowest point differential among the three teams at -32 so it will finish at No. 10. Either NLEX (+31) or Alaska (+1) will book the last ticket to the quarters.

The winner of tonight’s showdown will move on to battle topnotcher Phoenix at the MOA Arena on Sunday. The loser bows out of contention and ends up No. 9. Only the top eight finishers advance to the playoffs. As the No. 1 team, the Fuel Masters enjoy a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters while the NLEX-Alaska survivor has to win twice to make it to the best-of-seven semis.

The first seven slots have been allocated. Phoenix is in solo first at 9-2 and Rain Or Shine solo second at 8-3. Ginebra, TNT and San Miguel Beer are tied for third with the same 7-4 record. Using the quotient system, Ginebra is No. 3 at +3, TNT No. 4 at 0 and San Miguel Beer No. 5 at -3. Magnolia is in solo sixth at 6-5 and NorthPort in solo seventh at 5-6. Meralco is No. 11 at 3-8 and Blackwater No. 12 at 2-9.

The quarterfinal pairings are No. 1 Phoenix vs. No. 8 (to be determined) and No. 2 Rain Or Shine vs. No. 7 NorthPort with Phoenix and Rain Or Shine carrying a twice-to-beat advantage. The other pairings are No. 3 Ginebra vs. No. 6 Magnolia and No. 4 TNT vs. No. 5 San Miguel Beer in a pair of best-of-three series. In the best-of-seven semis, the TNT-San Miguel Beer winner will face the Phoenix-No. 8 winner while the Rain Or Shine-NorthPort winner will meet the Ginebra-Magnolia winner. The finals will be a best-of-seven series.

Magnolia’s win over NLEX last Wednesday guaranteed a playoff for Alaska. If NorthPort had lost to Ginebra in the second game that same day, NLEX would’ve clinched No. 7 with the Batang Pier and the Aces facing off for the eighth spot. As it turned out, NorthPort beat Ginebra, 100-97 and avoided a playoff with Alaska. Instead, NorthPort took the No. 7 slot and pushed NLEX to a showdown with the Aces.

NLEX is favored to beat Alaska if only because the Road Warriors walloped the Aces, 91-70, in the eliminations. NLEX had more rebounds, 60-46, more assists, 21-9, more second chance points, 13-8, more bench points, 52-28 and more fastbreak points, 16-6 to win convincingly. NLEX also shot at a higher clip from the floor, 42.3 percent to 28.8 percent. The Aces never led in the contest as Chris Banchero and Bryan Cruz were a combined 2-of-14 from the field for six points. Jeron Teng was the Aces’ only bright spot with 23 points. NLEX’ biggest lead was 28 at 91-63.

If NLEX plays like it did in crushing Alaska, the Road Warriors should have no difficulty repeating over the Aces. Alaska is reeling from a serious meltdown, losing its last two outings and five of its last six. Vic Manuel’s absence is telling and coach Alex Compton has struggled in finding someone to step up on offense as consistently as the Muscle Man. Teng is the Aces’ leading scorer but had only two in the last game against NorthPort. 

Sonny Thoss is averaging 13 points in his last four contests and has been a pleasant surprise as Alaska lacks a serious interior presence. Before the last four games, Thoss’ average was 5.9 points. Whether he’ll be a match for Poy Erram is a question mark. 

Alaska’s coaching staff was on hand to witness the doubleheader last Wednesday and Compton heaved a sigh of relief when Magnolia took the first game. He stayed on to watch the second game but it turned out to be inconsequential for the Aces since NorthPort’s win sealed a knockout game between Alaska and the Road Warriors.

Alaska was runner-up to Magnolia in the previous conference, the Governors Cup. The Aces didn’t finish lower than fifth in three conferences last campaign so battling just to make it to the quarterfinals in the Philippine Cup is a downgrade. Compton has led Alaska to five runner-up finishes in the last 12 conferences and once said he’s tired of ending up a bridesmaid. A win over NLEX will be a huge moral victory for Alaska particularly as the Aces are missing a big piece in Manuel.