Do-or-die duels in PBA

Eight teams are left in contention for the PBA Governors Cup crown with four facing do-or-die predicaments today and tomorrow as hostilities begin in the playoffs that could extend all the way to Dec. 21 if every series goes the distance.

Struck out of the race were TNT (4-7), Rain Or Shine (3-8), NorthPort (2-9) and Columbian Dyip (1-10). The KaTropa could’ve forced a playoff with Meralco for eighth place if TNT beat Barangay Ginebra at the Smart Araneta Coliseum last Sunday. But Ginebra just wouldn’t oblige and won, 112-93 with TNT’s Terrence Romeo watching from the bench unable to play. If TNT won, there would’ve been a triple tie for seventh with Meralco and NLEX. In that scenario, the Road Warriors would’ve clinched No. 7 with a superior +10 rating, leaving Meralco (+1) and TNT (-10) to dispute No. 8 in a playoff.

The top four finishers at the end of the eliminations were Ginebra (9-2), Phoenix (8-3), Alaska (8-3) and Magnolia (8-3), all gaining a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals.  The next four placers were Blackwater (7-4), San Miguel Beer (6-5), Meralco (5-6) and NLEX (5-6).

Ginebra could’ve lost to TNT last Sunday and it wouldn’t have made a difference to coach Tim Cone’s squad. A defeat would’ve dipped Ginebra’s record to 8-3, tying with Phoenix, Alaska and Magnolia. In that scenario, Ginebra would’ve still taken pole position with a +17 rating, Phoenix second (0), Alaska third (-8) and Magnolia fourth (-10). So Ginebra could’ve just relaxed against TNT and rested starters to prepare for the quarterfinals because win or lose, it had clinched No. 1. Cone, however, isn’t the type to cool his heels, realizing momentum is critical moving into the playoffs.

In another big game last Sunday, Phoenix outlasted Blackwater, 97-91. The outcome decided which team would finish in the top four. If Blackwater won, the Elite would’ve tied Alaska and Magnolia at 8-3. In that scenario, Magnolia would’ve vaulted to No. 2 with a +44 rating, Alaska steady at No. 3 (-3) and Blackwater No. 4 (-41). Phoenix would’ve dropped to No. 5. As it turned out, Phoenix went up to No. 2 with a +2 rating. Alaska stayed at No. 3 with +1 and Magnolia took No. 4 with -3. A Blackwater win would’ve given the Elite a twice-to-beat advantage over Phoenix in the quarterfinals.

In today’s twinbill at the Big Dome, it will be Magnolia against Blackwater and Ginebra against NLEX. The Elite and Road Warriors must win to force a you-or-me showdown against the same opponents at the Smart Araneta Coliseum on Thursday. If the Hotshots and Ginebra win, they’ll revive the Manila Clasico in the best-of-five semifinals. 

Tomorrow’s doubleheader features Phoenix against Meralco and Alaska against San Miguel. The Bolts and Beermen are in a must-win situation. If they survive tomorrow, then it’s winner-take-all against the same opponents at the Big Dome on Friday. If Phoenix and Alaska win, they move on to the semifinals where the winner advances to battle the Ginebra-Magnolia survivor in the best-of-seven finals.

Magnolia walloped Blackwater, 133-99, in the elims with five Hotshots scoring in twin digits led by Romeo Travis’ 22. Paul Lee shot 19, Mark Barroca 16, Ian Sangalang 15 and Jio Jalalon 13 in a balanced attack that took the starch out of the Elite. Blackwater’s gritty NBA warrior Henry Walker has been a consistent double-double machine in his last six games but for the Elite to survive, it can’t just be the import crunching the numbers. Poy Erram, Mike DiGregorio, Nards Pinto, Paul Zamar, Allein Maliksi and a rejuvenated Mac Belo must provide the firepower to ease Walker’s burden.  The trend favors Magnolia as the Hotshots have won six of their last eight while Blackwater has lost three of its last four. Magnolia leads the league in defense, giving up only 90.5 points a game, in turnover points with 23.1 and in opponents’ turnovers with 20.3.

NLEX’ original import Olu Ashaolu won’t be cleared by team doctors until the semifinals, assuming the Road Warriors go that far. So Aaron Fuller remains NLEX’ import but coach Yeng Guiao can’t complain. Fuller is averaging a league-leading 31.9 points and he was unstoppable with 42 points in NLEX’ 116-110 overtime win over Alaska. Ginebra, however, is on a roll with six wins in its last seven outings, including a 106-92 decision over NLEX. It’s no coincidence that as Ginebra is No. 1 in assists with 28.5 a game, the team is also No. 1 in field goal shooting at 54.9 percent. Justin Brownlee is as prolific as ever, averaging 31.8 points, 12.9 rebounds and 6.9 assists and Cone’s rotation has become even deeper with the return of Greg Slaughter and Sol Mercado and the unveiling of Art de la Cruz. Joe DeVance has missed the last five contests due to a stress fracture in his left foot and when he’s reactivated in two weeks, Cone will bring back a key piece in Ginebra’s chess board. Ginebra is the defending back-to-back Governors Cup champion.