It's still the economy, stupid

We all know that the expression "The economy, stupid" is a phrase that was coined by James Carville in 1992. It is often quoted from a televised quip by Carville as "It's the economy, stupid." Carville was a strategist in President Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against the then incumbent US President George Henry Walker Bush.

Our research shows that Clinton's campaign advantageously used the then prevailing recession in the United States as one of the means to successfully unseat George H.W. Bush. It is recalled that in March 1991, days after the war in Kuwait, 90% of polled Americans approved of President Bush's job performance. The Americans lauded Bush for defending the small but oil-rich nation in the Gulf. But during the following year, American opinion turned sharply; 64% of polled Americans disapproved of Bush's job performance in August 1992. That means that when the peoples' lives are made very difficult because of high prices, high unemployment rate and high poverty incidence, the people always blame the president for their predicament.

Using this same template in relation to the Philippine economic conditions, this column predicts that the next presidential elections shall largely depend on the economic performance of the BBM government. Today, the cost of living is largely going up, up, and away. Inflation is high and the prices of prime commodities are beyond the common peoples' reach. Jobs are too few and too far in between. The government's bloated and doctored statistics are fast losing credibility. What is palpable evidence is the real condition on the ground. People have no jobs, millions are just waiting for the 4 P's "ayuda". Millions are not productive and many of our natural resources are non-performing assets.

The government is not able to create a situation that improves the investment climate. More and more foreign investors are shying away from us and going to Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia instead. The Philippines has the lowest direct foreign investment among the 10 ASEAN member nations. The Philippine government makes it difficult for new businesses to be licensed and to start operations. There are too many bureaucratic inanities and red tape. Corruption is still rampant from the lowest barangay levels to the national agencies. There are too many inspections conducted by both local and national agencies. And crime rates are rising, weather disturbances are too frequent. There is no purposeful and coherent agricultural program to promote and assure food security.

The McKinsey and Company research team is not very optimistic about the Philippine economic outlook. Key challenges facing the country are significantly high unemployment numbers, a high inflation rate (forecast to reach 5.1% in 2023), rising policy rates, import and export bottlenecks, and the declining strength of the Philippine peso against the American dollar. The wars in Ukraine and Israel are adding more pressure to the Philippine economy. The supply chain is being disrupted tremendously and our overseas contract working opportunities in the Middle East are also being affected adversely as well. It is still the economy that can make and unmake political developments.

The problem with Filipino leaders is that they are too fixated on politics and too removed from economic development activities. Unlike the Japanese and Chinese people whose time and efforts are geared toward their economic enhancement, on the increase of financial and industrial activities, the Filipinos are too focused on politics. This is a culture which is being cultivated and even perpetuated by irresponsible politicians who are too preoccupied with the practice of influence-peddling and transactional politics as patronage governance. The problem with our country is that our leaders are very bad behavior models. They do not walk their talk; they do not practice what they preach.

Bad leaders are making people mendicants whose dependence on government dole-outs is being intentionally pushed and perpetuated in order to make the trapos appear as the false saviors from self-inflicted poverty. It is still the economy that matters most, and we should stop being stupid in following the importuning of useless trapos. The trapos are corrupt, inept, and callous. We should start taking charge of our own lives and expose these scoundrels in high places. It's the economy that matters most, period. We are not that supid as not to understand.