Waffling

US President Joe Biden drew flak from all sides for suspending shipment of munitions to Israel as a way of showing displeasure over Tel Aviv’s decision to proceed with its ground operations at Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city.

The decision was condemned as abandonment of a key ally in the midst of a war. It was also derided as reinforcing perception that the US was an unreliable ally – putting its convenience first or responding to the vagaries of domestic politics.

This being a presidential election year featuring a close rematch between Biden and Donald Trump, every policy decision by the chief executive is bound to be processed through the prism of party positioning. Trump seized on the opportunity to play for Jewish votes by roundly decrying his rival’s decision as abandonment of an ally – even as he previously announced he would not support America’s NATO allies facing an aggressive Russia.

Biden’s suspension of weapons delivery happens after House Republicans held up military aid packages to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan by many months to score points against the Democrats. Ukraine, currently falling back from several positions in the face of a Russian offensive, might have performed better if weapons were delivered more promptly.

Biden justifies his position by saying that he did not want US bombs killing more civilians in the devastated territory. That sounds rather glib. Israeli forces have destroyed much of Gaza over the past months using US-supplied weapons. Rafah is the last enclave where Hamas still operates as an organized force.

Clearly, Biden was responding to anti-Israel campus protests the past few weeks. The protests enjoyed the support of left-wing Democratic Party stalwarts. Biden also needs to shore up electoral support from younger voters, exemplified by the students organizing anti-Israel encampments.

But the broad backlash to the suspension of arms delivery could force Biden to reconsider in the light of new developments in the war. This seems to be Biden’s operational code.

Recall that Biden opposed sending longer range missiles to Ukraine, fearing they would be used to attack Russian territory and widen the conflict, including Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons. Biden later on agreed to send these missiles after Kiev kept begging for them.

Biden also earlier opposed sending F-16 fighter planes and Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine on the same cautious calculations. The US is now supplying Kiev with both weapons.

Biden initially opposed sending Patriot defense systems to Ukraine but later yielded when Russia sent its missiles raining down on Ukrainian cities. The Patriot systems are now deployed in Ukraine’s defense.

When Ukraine developed its own powerful drones and began attacking Russian oil facilities, the Biden administration called on Kiev to avoid doing so for fear of pushing up oil prices. Washington has since toned down on this subject.

The waffling seems characteristically Biden: a risk-averse politician. As vice president to Barack Obama, Biden opposed the daring raid on the Islamabad hideout of Osama Bin Laden. Obama carried out the attack anyway, notwithstanding objections from his vice president. The risky operation resulted in the killing of the terrorist chief.

Biden has been on Netanyahu’s back since Israel decided to mount a military offensive to clear Gaza of Hamas. The offensive against a densely populated territory would inevitably incur collateral damage. But not doing this military operation would mean that Hamas will continue to threaten Israel’s population long into the future.

At every turn, over the past six months, Washington tried to rein in Netanyahu. The right-wing Israeli leader has proven to be a stubborn and independent customer, to Biden’s exasperation. When the suspension of deliveries was announced last week, the Israeli leader said his country will fight with their fingernails if necessary. That reaction should embarrass Biden.

From Netanhayu’s point of view, the war against Hamas simply cannot be left half-done. Otherwise, the terrorist group will simply regenerate and continue to threaten Israel for generations to come.

Rafah, Gaza’s entry point to Egypt, is particularly important for Hamas. For as long as they control this city, they will control the aid flow to the starving population they want to keep under their tight grip.

Hamas raises resources not only from their control of aid flow. The terrorist group also collects up to $5,000 from every Gazan seeking to escape into Egypt. The last operational Hamas regiments are in Rafah.

Because of all these reasons, it is highly unlikely that Tel Aviv will bow down to Biden’s pressure. The ground operation in Rafah will continue to creep until all the Hamas tunnels in the city is blown up.

Biden’s decision to suspend arms shipments to an ally in the midst of a war poses broader reputation risks for the US. America’s NATO allies, wary of the crazy twists and turns of current US domestic politics, are hurrying on their own rearmament.

Here in Manila, voices that oppose our country’s sharp pro-US pivot cite all those instances when America waffled when her allies needed her support most. These dissenting voices claim that the US is pushing us to war as her proxy even as America has proven to be a waffling ally.

Biden’s suspension of weapons deliveries to Israel provides anti-American voices in the Philippines and elsewhere more grist. The worst scenario involves the US reneging on her mutual defense treaty obligations after pushing us to war.