Cebu COVID-19 cases rising; hospitals near full capacity

MANILA, Philippines — Experts warned yesterday that the hospital bed capacity in Cebu City could reach the critical level of 70 percent in two weeks as the number of coronavirus diseases 2019 or COVID-19 cases continues to rise.

In its latest monitoring report, the OCTA Research Group said the average number of daily new cases in the city rose to 123 from Feb. 1 to 7 or by around 30 percent from 94 in the preceding week.

The current hospital bed capacity in the city remains at 36 percent, but the group said it could breach the critical level if the transmission rate continues to rise.

“If the current trends continue, based on the latest reproduction number in Cebu City of 1.4 percent and assuming a hospitalization rate of 25 to 35 percent of new cases... it is estimated that between two to three weeks… an additional 240 beds will be occupied,” OCTA said.

“If this happens, it will increase hospital bed occupancy past the 70 percent critical level. The goal is to slow down the increase in new cases to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed,” the group said.

OCTA also noted an increase in average daily new cases in Lapu Lapu and Mandaue cities, from 12 to 34 and 20 to 28, respectively.

The group said the threat of the more infectious UK variant of COVID-19 would require more aggressive interventions.

Stricter quarantine

In case hospital occupancy breaches the critical level, experts said the Cebu City government should consider imposing stricter community quarantine.

“While we are confident that Cebu City and the province are now better prepared to deal with the current cases, the possibility of the more infectious UK variant spreading is a game changer,” it said.

The group said interventions could include implementation of strict barangay lockdowns in areas identified as hotspots, with the local government providing social support and concentrating resources for testing, tracing and isolation.

OCTA classified Cebu City as the second epicenter of COVID-19 in the country last year after the number of cases spiked to thousands in June from only a few dozens in April.

Cebu logged the most number of cases in the country in May, prompting the deployment of Special Action Force commandos to keep residents indoors and medical teams after the healthcare system was overwhelmed with patients.

Meanwhile, OCTA said no noticeable increase in new cases was recorded in Metro Manila in the past week. Non-increasing trends were also observed in Central and Southern Luzon.