Four years under BBM vs four years under GMA

Two weeks ago, I wrote a piece comparing the economic performance of BBM against that of PNoy in their respective four years in office.

For those who missed it, their contrasting archetypes mirror their performance. Aquino was quiet, dutiful and effective. Marcos governs like a dictator’s entitled son who mistakes promises and propaganda for governance. Typical of a prince who has built nothing enduring on his own.

Aquino strengthened the economy through reform, prudence and institutional discipline. The Philippines attained investment-grade status and became Asia’s brightest economic star. Marcos is squandering those gains through weak, visionless leadership – evident in plunging investments, runaway debt, corruption and the absence of meaningful reform. Under Aquino, the nation beamed with pride and optimism. Under Marcos, the nation is demoralized, disappointed and discouraged. This is reflected in his dismal satisfaction rating.

Numerous readers, fellow economist and policy makers have since written me to express their appreciation for that article. Many requested that I do a comparison of BBM and GMA. So here goes.

Basic stats

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo inherited an economy destabilized by EDSA II and the Sept. 11 attacks. President Marcos inherited a post-pandemic rebound, investment-grade credit ratings, more than $100 billion in reserves and a modernized financial system. Yet Arroyo’s economy accelerated. Marcos’ economy weakened considerably.

GDP grew by 2.9 percent in 2001, Arroyo’s first year. It accelerated to 3.7 percent in 2002, five percent in 2003 and 6.7 percent in 2004.

Marcos inherited the 7.6 percent rebound of 2022. Growth slowed to 5.5 percent in 2023, 5.6 percent in 2024 and 4.4 percent in 2025. In the first semester of 2026, it collapsed to 2.6 percent – the weakest since the pandemic.

Arroyo inherited stagnation and generated momentum. Marcos inherited momentum and created stagnation.

Breaking it down

In Q2 of 2004, industry expanded by 5.6 percent, manufacturing by 4.6 percent and construction by 13.7 percent. Services grew by 7.3 percent. Household consumption increased by six percent, capital formation by 8.5 percent and exports by 14.9 percent. GMA’s economy was robust.

In the second quarter of 2026, industry contracted by 2.4 percent and construction collapsed by 14.8 percent. Manufacturing grew by only 2.6 percent. Household consumption expanded by a miserable 2.8 percent, while gross capital formation plunged by 9.2 percent, its fourth consecutive quarterly contraction. Government consumption increased by 8.3 percent and exports by 12.2 percent.

In plain language, Arroyo’s fourth year economy was driven by consumption, investment, construction and exports. Marcos’ economy is being propped up by government spending while families consume less and businesses withhold investment.

Investment and trade

Foreign investment was Arroyo’s weakness. Political instability, corruption and fiscal risks kept investors cautious. Net FDI amounted to only about $330 million during the first nine months of 2004.

Marcos inherited far better conditions – investment-grade ratings, stronger banks, modern infrastructure, a strong BPO sector and a workforce exceeding 50 million. He did nothing with it.

Net FDI reached $9.4 billion in 2022, but declined to $8.9 billion in 2023 and 2024, and fell further to $7.5 billion in 2025. From January to May 2026, it amounted to only $2.2 billion, sharply lower year-on-year. Marcos’ weak leadership knocked the wind out of investor confidence.

Structural reform

Arroyo was unpopular, politically compromised and hounded by corruption allegations. But unlike Marcos, she understood economics.

Her administration enacted the Electric Power Industry Reform Act, the Government Procurement Reform Act and stronger anti-money laundering laws. It supported telecommunications and BPO expansion. IT-BPOs would become a leading source of jobs, exports and foreign exchange.

GMA’s reforms were imperfect. EPIRA failed to deliver cheap electricity.

Marcos has not created any new industry. He has not initiated game-changing economic reforms outside CREATE MORE nor has he initiated a major infrastructure project.

Debt and inflation

National debt increased from P2.2 trillion in 2000 to P3.8 trillion in 2004. Debt was equivalent to roughly three-fourths of GDP. But Arroyo openly declared a fiscal crisis and acted on it.

Marcos inherited P12.79 trillion in debt and ballooned it to P19 trillion in just four years. But he has nothing to show for it Debt for nothing is a Marcos brand.

Budget deficits reached P1.6 trillion in 2022, P1.51 trillion in 2023 and P1.51 trillion in 2024. Yet Marcos carelessly dishes out subsidies, discounts and debt relief. He distributes benefits today and leaves the bill to the next administration.

Arroyo accumulated debt but eventually confronted the imbalance. Marcos accumulates debt and calls it “leadership.”

Leadership and governance

Arroyo’s presidency was tarnished by corruption, political manipulation and “Hello Garci.” No honest comparison should sanitize her stained record. But neither should we deny her economic competence.

Arroyo understood taxation, debt, investment and trade. She appointed capable technocrats, championed reforms and knew how to make the bureaucracy deliver. When confronted with structural problems, she pursued structural solutions – even when these demanded political sacrifice. Her reforms were imperfect, but they established the foundations for a stronger economy.

Marcos governs differently. He tolerates bureaucratic incompetence and substitutes announcements for execution. He speaks of economic and political reforms but it is nearly non-existent. His answer to poverty is a subsidy; to inflation, discounts; to weak investment, another ceremonial pledge. There is no coherent industrial strategy, no serious fiscal consolidation and no serious campaign against corruption.

Arroyo’s first four years took economic growth from 2.9 percent to 6.7 percent. Marcos’ first four years took it from 7.6 percent to 2.6 percent.

Expecting Bongbong Marcos to match the economic competence of GMA or PNoy is like expecting honey from a mosquito. He cannot give what he does not possess. The cruel joke is on us – especially the 31.6 million Filipinos who trusted Ferdinand’s son. Now, the entire nation pays the price.

*      *      *

Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan