‘NCR daily cases may drop to 500 by mid-February’

MANILA, Philippines — Daily new cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may drop to less than 500 per day by Valentine’s Day, a member of the OCTA Research Group said yesterday.

OCTA fellow Guido David said actual cases in the region in recent days are below his earlier projection of around 1,000 daily new cases by mid-February.

“At this rate, new cases in the NCR could go below 500 by Feb. 14,” he said, noting that reproduction number in the region is now at just 0.71.

On Tuesday, only 2,751 new cases were recorded in NCR, out of 17,677 reported nationwide.

Quezon City logged the highest number of new cases at 648, followed by Manila with 312, Makati with 289, Parañaque with 224 and Pasig with 188.

David said he expects NCR to be downgraded to “moderate risk” next week, from the current “high risk” classification. OCTA classified the region as “severe” last week.

Citing data from the Department of Health, the OCTA fellow said NCR recorded an average of 6,280 new cases per day from Jan. 19 to 25, down from 15,782 in the preceding week.

The seven-day positivity also dropped from 36 percent to 24 percent, still considered critical.

Health care and intensive care utilization rates have also returned to “low” 48 percent and 44 percent, respectively.