Two sides of coin

The road to the UAAP senior men’s basketball throne ends at the Smart Araneta Coliseum today. The inevitable has come. Defending champion La Salle and Ateneo will battle one last time for all the marbles after going 2-2 head-to-head from the eliminations to the playoffs this season. The Eagles drew first blood in the eliminations, 76-75, then the Archers returned the favor, 79-76. They eventually advanced to the best-of-three Finals with Ateneo taking Game 1, 76-70 and La Salle coming back from 21 down to win Game 2, 92-83.

Statistically, two figures stand out as winning factors although neither reflects a clear trend. In four games, the team with more free throws made and blocked shots has won. In their first meeting, the Eagles hit 11-of-14 foul shots and the Archers, 5-of-13. In the second, it was the Archers with 20-of-29 and the Eagles, 13-of-19. In Game 1 of the Finals, Ateneo went 20-of-30 and La Salle, 11-of-19 and in Game 2, the Archers were 24-of-28 and the Eagles, 20-of-24. When a team takes too many chances on defense, it usually enters the penalty situation early in any quarter and that gives the other side more cracks at the line. 

Blocked shots was also an indicator. In the first encounter, Ateneo had three and La Salle, two and in the second, it was 7-3 the other way around. In the Finals opener, the Eagles had two swats and La Salle, one while in Game 2, the Archers had five and Ateneo, none. The statistic may be an indicator of which team is working harder and wants it more. Turnovers were a trend-setter in the first three battles but last Wednesday, both teams had the same number, 21.

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If it’s low-scoring, Ateneo has the advantage, holding La Salle down to an average of 72.5 points in the Eagles’ two wins. If it’s high-scoring, the Archers hold the edge, scoring 85.5 in their two wins. For Ateneo to win the closer, the Eagles must play unforgiving defense and for the Archers to prevail, they’ve got to pick up the pace. The coaching battle between Ateneo’s Tab Baldwin and La Salle’s Aldin Ayo will be in the spotlight. They’re both masters of adjustments. Baldwin stresses discipline in execution while Ayo emphasizes mayhem in disruption.

Former Ateneo star guard and now FEU head coach and Barangay Ginebra assistant coach Olsen Racela predicted the Eagles to win today. “I think their experience in the Final 4 prepared them to overcome adversities like what they’re facing now,” he said. “Coach Tab’s years of experience will be a factor in making adjustments to neutralize Ricci Rivero without losing focus on defending Ben Mbala.”

Racela said the players who need to step up are for Ateneo, Vince Tolentino and Raffy Verano and for La Salle, Jolo Go. “Ateneo needs a major contribution from the two bigs, especially against La Salle’s big lineup while Go’s outside shooting will help open up things for Mbala with the way Ateneo is defending him,” he said.

Former La Salle star and now Star Hotshots assistant coach Jason Webb said the three critical factors that will determine the outcome are defense, bench and poise to rise above the physicality. “I feel the team that controls the tempo has the bigger advantage,” he said. “La Salle is fast and Ateneo is deliberate. The other key is composure, especially when it comes to controlling their temper. Can’t give cheap points and poor decisions because they’re upset with the physicality or calls or non-calls.” Webb said La Salle’s strengths are Mbala, Ayo’s pressure full-court defense and experience in close-out games while Ateneo’s strengths are discipline, ball movement, being unselfish and its half-court defense.

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Racela said his most memorable game against La Salle was the 1988 championship game. “I had a bigger role that year, my second, and we were the first UAAP team in years to win back-to-back,” he said.

Former La Salle stalwart Dino Aldeguer said his most memorable game against Ateneo was in the 1996-97 season. “They blew us out by 35,” he said. “They shot almost 70 percent from the floor the entire game and they made so many three-pointers, they hardly missed. It was my rookie year and we were No. 1 in the standings and they were like at the bottom but they sure kicked our butts. Sadly, it’s a game I wish I could forget but I couldn’t. It was too embarrassing for us.”

Aldeguer said his most memorable UAAP Finals was in 1999. “We won it back-to-back,” he said. “We played UST in Game 3 at Cuneta since Araneta was under renovation. La Salle had never won a championship at Cuneta and we had never won a championship against UST which was our kryptonite for years. But in 1999, it was a different story. I was fortunate to be part of the team that won it. We lost Game 1 but came back to win Games 2 and 3.”