Is Smith in or out?

TNT has up to 12 noon today to decide whether or not to stick with hulking import Joshua Smith for Game 4 of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup Finals against San Miguel Beer at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tomorrow. The KaTropa is down, 1-2, in the best-of-seven series and another loss will put coach Nash Racela on the brink of farewell. So if TNT wants to make a change, it should come before Game 4 or else it could be too late to stem the tide.

Smith’s inability to keep pace with TNT’s thoroughbreds has led to a major adjustment in Racela’s style of attack. Because Smith is slower than what you would expect from an average import, San Miguel is able to cheat defensively in the interior and shut the door on TNT’s dribble-drivers. It’s also easier for San Miguel to trap Jayson Castro on ball-screens because Smith isn’t quick to adjust to a position where he can receive a pass. In Game 3 last Sunday, Castro had 10 turnovers and bled for his 17 points.

Another drawback is TNT’s inability to run consistently because the locals wait for Smith to carry his weight to the frontcourt and set up. By the time Smith gets the ball at the post, San Miguel has locked down on defense to take away his strong side where he usually turns for a baby hook. It was evident in Game 3 where San Miguel had 18 fastbreak points to TNT’s 10.

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Individually, Smith isn’t doing badly in terms of numbers. In Game 1, he scored 21 points and hit the marginal basket to lift TNT to a 104-102 win. In Game 2, Smith was held to 11 points on 3-of-8 field goals and 5-of-8 free throws. In Game 3, he had 18 points and 14 rebounds in 24:56 minutes. The problem is because of his bulk, TNT’s options on offense are limited. The locals are adjusting more to Jumbotron than Smith is adjusting to the locals.

TNT has the option to replace Smith with stand-by import Mike Myers who’s a lot more experienced with stops in Finland, Estonia, France and Italy. Myers, 24, is slightly shorter than Smith but quicker. He’s been watching the TNT games at the sidelines with the KaTropa’s Governors Cup import Mike Craig of the University of Southern Mississippi. Craig, 25, is a veteran of the Mexican and South Korean leagues. This season, Craig was on the Samsung team that lost to Anyang in the South Korean league Finals. He averaged 13.2 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists in 70 games. Myers would be a lot less predictable on offense than Smith.

As for Smith, there’s no question he’s talented. “Smith is not only a giant space-eater inside, he’s actually a very skilled player around the basket with soft hands and an effective scoring touch,” wrote Bruce Pascoe in Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook. “Teammates can just toss him the ball and with his skills at the rim and ability to push defenders around, he converts. Almost every time. The only question with Smith is how much of his immense potential he is going to actually reach, a question that is linked to his weight.”

Smith started his collegiate career at UCLA then transferred to Georgetown which he chose over Kansas. Georgetown coach John Thompson III said “the issue is less about weight and more about his ability to move his feet on defense and get up and down the floor.” Thompson added, “When Josh is on the court, there’s not too many people, quite honestly, that can do the things that he does in college basketball … having that low-post presence is a bonus…he has a very good feel for the game, he can score on the block, he can make the pass, he’s a very good passer…so when you take that and then you put it at his size and his strength where he is physically as big and strong as anyone, he’s hard to stop, he has the agility, he has the aptitude.” It’s a tough choice to make. Will TNT keep Smith or gamble with Myers?