China more aggressive due to COVID-19

Indian observers believe the China aggression in Ladakh in the extreme northern region of India is a deliberate policy by China. This is part of China’s growing aggression or “wolf warrior” diplomacy based on its assumption that the US and Europe are too busy dealing with their internal pandemic crisis. The US government is also too distracted by Trump’s singular focus to win reelection. His attention has become all consuming on his part because he is running behind Biden, his Democratic opponent, in every major poll.

A former Indian diplomat, Sreenivasan, actually said that based on past history, it is time for China to have a more aggressive posture.Here is what he said:

“They know that during this COVID-19 crisis there will be no US help. There is a general trend of aggressiveness. Whether it is at a local level, commanders’ level, one suspects this from the knowledge and permission from the highest level. ...”

He also reminded people that even in 1962, China fought a war with India when America was busy with the Cuban missile crisis. He said: “The day when the Cuban crisis ended, China stopped the war against India and had withdrawn their troops because it is connected with the possibility of US help coming. Now they know that during the COVID-19 crisis there will be no US help.” He also said that usually when tensions rise and incidents happen, it is discussed at the military or diplomatic level. However, this time it looks like China’s aggressive posturing is more like a deliberate policy to create tension at the highest level. Sreevisan said: “Escalation is not possible without permission from the highest level.”

It is not only along the India-Chinese border where there is an increased aggressiveness of Chinese forces. Recently they have become aggressive against Vietnamese and Indonesian fishermen. In Hong Kong they have intervened directly and increased their propaganda warfare against Hong Kong demonstrators.

It always seemed to me that it was only a matter of time before China would do away with the “one country, two systems arrangement” and impose its own laws and rule on Hong Kong. According to a geopolitical writer, Yoon Young-kwan:

“From China’s perspective, America’s decadence and decline – from the 2008 financial crisis to Donald Trump’s presidency – have given it an open invitation to accelerate its strategic expansion. Though Chinese President Xi Jinping has long assured the world that the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate both China and the United States his actual policies have suggested otherwise.”

China’s most serious move has been to militarize the South China Sea.

The surprising thing is that it is taking advantage of the pandemic when it is still also suffering from the COVID-19 crisis. Perhaps, it did not anticipate a second surge.

Ketian Zhang of George Mason University charts how China has been throwing its weight around the region. He offers a “cost balancing theory of decision making that China uses coercion when the need to establish a reputation for resolve is high and the economic cost is low.” In the early 2000s, China was quiet in the South China when it wanted a free trade deal with the ASEAN. Later it became more assertive when it decided the region needed Chinese trade more than China needed the trade and ASEAN needed to be deterred from seeking international help in the South China Sea. During a territorial dispute with the Philippines in 2012, it banned imports of bananas from the Philippines.

The pattern continues today. Australia demanded investigation in the origins and culpability for the COVID-19, presumably China’s. China has decided to boycott Australian beef. Western response has not been as aggressive because of preoccupation with the pandemic crisis. However, some countries have decided to start lessening supply chain dependence on China. American, Japanese and European companies are now being motivated by their governments to leave China. It seems that the Japanese government is the most aggressive by offering financial assistance to Japanese companies moving out of China. The current news is that more than 500 Japanese companies have decided to move out.

The most volatile situation is the relationship between China and Taiwan. China’s official policy is still one of peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but Taiwan’s political evolution and its increasing much improved internal relations might push Beijing to adopt a more coercive policy. The question is whether these coercive policies will work. Taiwan has a very strong military and the US will be forced to aid Taiwan because of domestic politics.

During the presidency of former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, the administration relied on greater economic interactions intending to tie the island’s economic status tightly to the mainland that would lead to a peaceful unification.

The election and overwhelming reelection of President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has effectively erased any expectation that the Taiwanese people will willingly give up its sovereignty. President Tsai and the DPP have also rejected the 1992 Consensus, an agreement between Taiwan and China that there is only one China. The events in Hong Kong has also increased the distrust especially among Taiwanese youth of the “one nation, two systems.”

In the past China relied mainly on incentivizing as their tool regarding Taiwan. Now they have moved on disrupting and isolating. However, Taiwan’s success in battling COVID-19 and events in Hong Kong have raised international sympathies.

The final step for China against Taiwan is to use force. Any miscalculation on either could lead to armed conflict between China and the US. This will be disastrous for the whole world.

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