Election issues

This week the Senate is reportedly set to start deliberations on amending the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Law, to ease its impact on consumer prices. The move looks like the Senate’s way of making up for its approval of TRAIN, notably the fuel excise tax.

The House of Representatives, on the other hand, has even approved TRAIN 2. Unlike in the Senate where there are only 24 members, public blame for runaway inflation is diluted in the HOR with its nearly 300 members. But voters can identify the chief HOR endorsers of TRAIN 2.

There was no lack of warnings last year, even during closed-door deliberations of the Cabinet economic cluster, on the possible inflationary impact of the fuel excise tax, considering the volatility of world crude prices. But those who issued the warnings were branded as doomsayers who were in the way of President Duterte’s much-touted “Build Build Build” infrastructure program.

Now even Duterte is putting as much space between him and TRAIN, saying he leaves economic policies to the economists on his team.

Senators, for their part, are also starting to distance themselves from TRAIN, whose fuel excise tax combined with soaring world crude prices and a weaker peso have made pump prices double from the rates in December 2017.

On social media, Sen. Sonny Angara, who chairs the ways and means committee, is bearing the brunt of the blame. There is speculation that he could suffer the fate of Ralph Recto, who once lost an election bid because he was seen to have shepherded the passage of the expanded value-added tax law during the Arroyo administration.

Angara is still within the so-called Magic 12 in recent surveys, but the campaign hasn’t gone full blast yet. Consumer prices will inevitably be an issue in the midterm elections, and even President Duterte has hinted that inflation is likely to get worse.

Economic managers are still trying to save TRAIN 2 from derailment, and TRAIN 1 from being amended to suspend the fuel excise tax. But with jeepney and bus fare increases expected to worsen inflation, and hitting during the Christmas season, the government may be left with no choice but to relent. Or Congress may force its hand, by legislating the rollback at least of the excise tax on diesel.

Among the proponents of that measure on diesel, which is used by public utility vehicles, is former senator Sergio Osmeña III, who was inspired by recent survey results to make a fresh bid for the Senate.

Serge Osmeña was our guest as we kicked off on The Chiefs last Friday, on Cignal TV’s One News channel, our series on Senate aspirants and other candidates for the 2019 midterm elections.

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Will issues drive voter preferences in 2019, or will personalities and name recall continue to rule?

In Osmeña’s case, I know people who remember his focus on economics when he was a senator. Still, after being away from the national consciousness for two years, a famous surname surely helps in the surveys.

But how do you explain the poor showing in the surveys of the scions of the other big names of the past in our political firmament? Diokno, Tañada – even the Aquino who is seeking reelection hasn’t made it to the Magic 12 so far.

Osmeña has no sure answer, although he believes individual personality can play a role in drawing voters’ attention. He says he has advised Chel Diokno and Erin Tañada of the opposition Tindig coalition to find something that will tickle or capture the “kiliti” of Pinoys.

What would resonate, Osmeña believes, are gut issues, as also reflected in surveys on priority concerns: prices, jobs, food security.

While respect for human rights is a valid issue, it won’t doom the administration or its candidates in May 2019. Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency by a landslide in 2016 on a promise of killing drug dealers and other criminals.

If the surveys are accurate, Oplan Tokhang and Double Barrel haven’t killed the election chances of their chief implementer, former national police chief Ronald dela Rosa.

But support for measures that have been blamed for the economic sufferings of Filipinos can prove fatal for the election bids of certain candidates.

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Osmeña is a member of Duterte’s party the PDP-Laban, but he’s running as an independent.

Political parties in this country, Osmeña told The Chiefs, are useless in providing campaign funding and logistical support. As for promoting issues, it’s even worse: all parties, he said, all mouth the same motherhood statements.

Senatorial candidates in the 2016 race told me that approximately P150 million was needed to mount a campaign for the Senate. Osmeña said this is true if a candidate intends to spend on TV advertising, which could eat up about two-thirds or three-fourths of the campaign budget.

With minimal spending on broadcasting ads, Osmeña estimates that a Senate campaign will cost about P50 million, even with 2018 inflation factored in. And he says that the typical candidate, even if he or she belongs to a major political party, must raise the bulk of his own campaign funds.

That P50-million budget, considered barebones in the age of TRAIN inflation, may be possible only for candidates who enjoy name recall. They include the five women who keep topping recent surveys on the Senate race, and Osmeña, who comes from a political family and was in the 8-to-17 range in the latest Pulse Asia poll. 

Osmeña is a friend of both the opposition and administration camps, and he is hoping to be a unifying force for the good of the country. If there are 150 bets gunning for just 12 seats in a national race, it helps to have an issue the candidate can uniquely champion.

As the official campaign period starts, it will also help not to be on the receiving end of public opprobrium for economic difficulties.