MANILA, Philippines – Manny Pacquiao invades unchartered territory in making his debut as a superwelterweight against Antonio Margarito in their 12-round bout for the vacant WBC 154-pound title at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, this morning (Manila time).
Although the catchweight limit is 150 pounds, it will be Pacquiao’s first and probably last venture in a division, which could push him to the limit. Pacquiao has never weighed in more than 145 3/4 pounds for a fight – that was when he took on Joshua Clottey last March – while Margarito has scaled at least 150 in seven bouts.
For Pacquiao, his goal is legacy, if not immortality. He is already guaranteed a place in boxing’s revered Hall of Fame, having captured the imagination of the universe by becoming the first and only fighter ever to capture seven world titles in seven weight classes. A win over Margarito will literally put him over the top as it will add an eighth crown to his unprecedented collection.
Pacquiao has won world titles as a flyweight (112 pounds), superbantamweight (122), featherweight (126), superfeatherweight (130), lightweight (135), lightwelterweight (140) and welterweight (147). His recognition has come from the WBC, IBF, IBO and WBO. No fighter has been as dominant since the advent of the millennium. No Filipino athlete has gained as much global acclaim for his athletic achievements.
Here are the 20 factors of consequence in the Pacquiao-Margarito fight.
• Conditioning. Margarito punished himself in the gym for nine straight weeks. Pacquiao began his training camp in Baguio and tapered off at the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, enduring a lot of distractions along the way. Margarito learned from his lesson of not watching his weight, which went up by 40 pounds, before the Sugar Shane Mosley fight last year. Advantage: Margarito.
• Ability to absorb. Margarito’s size gives him a weighty cushion to take the impact of the smaller Pacquiao’s blows. In contrast, Pacquiao may not be as sturdy against a bigger opponent. The key is whether or not Margarito will be able to land solidly because Pacquiao isn’t planning to stand around to get hit. Advantage: Margarito.
• Resiliency. Time and again, Pacquiao has shown an uncanny knack of making mid-fight adjustments. The perfect example was when he lured Miguel Cotto to the ropes and took away the Puerto Rican’s power left jab in a tactical shift that eventually decided the outcome of their brawl last year. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Relentless attack. Margarito was once described by Top Rank chairman Bob Arum as a freight train rolling downhill. The Tijuana Tornado will steamroll anyone in his path with an aggressive, come-forward style. He’ll throw punches from all angles and try to smother Pacquiao. Advantage: Margarito.
• Cornerwork. There’s no better trainer in the fight business today than Freddie Roach who’s cool, calm and composed. Roach eats pressure for breakfast, tension for lunch and anxiety for dinner. Nothing fazes Eddie Futch’s celebrated protégé. Margarito’s trainer Robert Garcia enjoyed success with Brian Viloria and Steven Luevano but he’s not in Roach’s class. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Quality of opposition. Pacquiao has tangled with future Hall of Famers like Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales and Juan Manuel Marquez. Margarito’s list of opponents isn’t as impressive. Cotto and Joshua Clottey are common foes. Pacquiao took out Cotto in 12 while Margarito did it in 11. Both Pacquiao and Margarito went the distance in defeating Clottey. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Resistance to pressure. Pacquiao is a master at handling pressure. Margarito will try to crowd Pacquiao and force him to engage. Pacquiao won’t be goaded into a streetbrawl where Margarito is at his fiercest because the close-quarter exchanges allow him to fight dirty. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Experience. Margarito turned pro in 1994, a year before Pacquiao. But the Filipino icon has logged 56 bouts and the Mexican, 44. Margarito has fought twice in the last 23 months compared to Pacquiao who’s been a little more active with three. Margarito took a layoff of over a year because of his suspension stemming from the handwraps incident. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Combination punching. Margarito lets his hands go. He’s known as a volume power puncher. He’ll throw at every opportunity. Pacquiao doesn’t fire as much but when he does, it’s with conviction. Pacquiao uses combinations in good timing whenever there are angles that open up. If Pacquiao plays his cards right, he can turn Margarito into a bumbling opponent missing wildly at an elusive target. But in terms of volume punching, Margarito has the edge. Advantage: Margarito.
• Mental toughness. Focus is important. Pacquiao isn’t easily distracted once the bell rings. He is determined to get his way in the ring. He knows what it will take to bring down Margarito. Execution will come with the right frame of mind. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Body work. Margarito is the typical Mexican fighter who likes to thump the body, pound the midsection and bang the rib cage. His idea is to slow down Pacquiao with an unforgiving body assault. He has used body shots to knock out opponents like Kermit Cintron. Pacquiao isn’t as deadly as a body puncher. Advantage: Margarito.
• One-punch KO power. Because of his sheer size, Margarito has the capability to knock out Pacquiao with one shot. The problem is landing it squarely. Pacquiao won’t be a standing target and if Margarito is unable to cut the ring off, he’ll pursue his prey from pillar to post without catching him. In contrast, Pacquiao doesn’t have the one-punch knockout power he showed in disposing of Ricky Hatton whom he fought at a limit of 140 pounds. Advantage: Margarito.
• Defense. Margarito is wide open when he winds up to throw his punches. His defense is his offense. Margarito will attempt to put Pacquiao on the defensive with his whirlwind, tornado-like style. Pacquiao won’t be careless and will guard against getting hit by a lucky punch. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Technical proficiency. In terms of fundamentals, Margarito is woefully flawed. He has poor footwork, poor hand-foot coordination and poor skills. He walks towards his opponents and tries to push them where he wants them. Pacquiao is a lot more polished. With Roach, he has matured into an accomplished boxer-puncher. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Hunger. Margarito is obsessed and possessed in his desire to beat Pacquiao. His dream is to be where Pacquiao is now – on top of the world. Still suspended in Nevada and California for the handwraps discovery, Margarito wants vindication, recognition and redemption. He’s held the IBF and WBO welterweight championship belts but that’s nothing compared to Pacquiao’s seven titles. Advantage: Margarito.
• Heart. When Pacquiao climbs onto the ring, he fights for the Filipino nation. There isn’t a more courageous fighter. He never backs down. He endures pain. He won’t let the Filipino people down. Margarito isn’t as tough in the heart. In the Mosley fight, the Mexican quit in the ninth round. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Susceptibility to cuts. Margarito has a bleeder’s reputation. He cuts a lot more easily than Pacquiao although the Filipino has been known to shed blood, too. Margarito uses his head to butt and open up cuts. That’s what Pacquiao should watch for. Accuracy will determine which fighter is more vulnerable to bleeding. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Understanding the game. Pacquiao is much more adept at using the ring to his advantage. He’ll circle away from Margarito, fire on the backfoot and employ a hit-and-run strategy, particularly in the early rounds. Pacquiao doesn’t think on a round-to-round basis. He looks at the bigger picture and unravels a fight plan that evolves deliberately, not by accident. Margarito isn’t as intelligent. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Recovery recoil. Pacquiao may not be able to recuperate from being hurt as quickly as Margarito because of his size disadvantage. Pacquiao can’t gamble on taking a shot to give a shot. Margarito is big and has power. Advantage: Margarito.
• Vulnerability to trap. Pacquiao won’t allow himself to be put in a precarious situation. Margarito will try to put Pacquiao in a position where he isn’t able to extricate. He’ll trap Pacquiao along the ropes or in a corner so the Filipino won’t be able to use open space. Pacquiao’s speed – both hand and foot – is vital in staying away from trouble. Advantage: Pacquiao.
Of the 20 factors of consequence, Pacquiao has the edge in 12 departments. It won’t be a cakewalk for either fighter. The odds may show Pacquiao to be an overwhelming favorite but when the bell rings, anything can happen in the square jungle. My prediction is Pacquiao will batter Margarito into submission in the ninth round.