Recently there was a word war between the Philippines and China which continues on. It started when China’s Ambassador to the Philippines was quoted as saying “that China may easily win in a confrontation against the Philippines.” In the unlikely event that such a conflict will arise, the question is what will the nature of this conflict be and how will the Philippines react.
This possibility has given rise to the question of what the wars of the future will be like. One conclusion that has become more and more acceptable among geopolitical strategists is the growing belief that there is very little threat of a nuclear war. In the last few decades, we have seen conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and, more recently, in Ukraine, between the superpowers and their proxies. In all these conflicts, although the parties involved possess nuclear weapons, none of the countries used this type of weapons. Even India and Pakistan which possess nuclear weapons and were attacking across each other’s borders in May 2025, nuclear weapons were not used at all.
In this new era of warfare, there are emerging technologies that will favor countries like the Philippines. Early this year, for example, the United States started an air war across Iranian targets. The US dominated the skies, using its massive air power. During a five-week period, the US conducted over 13,000 air strikes against Iran. Over the same period, however, Iran was able to retaliate by launching 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones against countries in the region.
Until now, the Iranian regime remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not been forced to surrender and has not given up control of Hormuz. The United States has not therefore achieved its objective in the war, even though it is far more powerful than Iran.
The conflict between Iran and the United States is being viewed as the first example of a new era in warfare. Emerging technologies are levelling the playing field between the superpowers and its adversaries.
Another clear example of this new warfare is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At the beginning of this conflict, most experts believed that Ukraine would be easily invaded and surrender a few weeks after the invasion.
After several years, Ukraine is still fighting and the most recent reports indicate that Ukraine is now successfully pushing back the Russian invaders.
The main reason for the unexpected resilience of small countries against superpowers is the existence of affordable drone technology, which is allowing smaller states to successfully retaliate against superior invading forces.
Drones have transformed not just the dynamics of warfare but also its economics. Both Ukraine and Iran have used low-cost air and naval drones to destroy far more expensive assets. For example, Ukraine used kamikaze drone boats and anti-ship missiles to obliterate Russia’s Black Sea fleet, sinking 13 ships after two years of war and damaging dozens more.
A $300,000 drone boat can cripple a Navy warship that costs hundreds of millions of dollars. The superpowers have no advantage in these emerging drone technologies. Iran, for example, has become a major producer of cheap drones. Ukraine produces four million drones every year.
Ukraine is producing long-range strike drones that can travel up to 600 miles. More countries will soon possess similar drones. It is expected that these advances in drone technology will change warfare in profound ways. Even the Pentagon has announced plans to expand the production of low-cost drones and has budgeted $1 billion to produce 340,000 drones by 2027. The US Army has set a goal of producing at least a million drones by 2028.
It is notable to observe that Ukraine’s production of four million drones a year makes it a bigger drone producer than any of the superpowers.
A drone which originally used to refer to a stingless male bee, a continuous hum, a bagpipe’s pipe tone or to speak in a boring, monotonous tone has today acquired another meaning. In the context of warfare, it is defined as an unscrewed aircraft or ship guided by remote control or by onboard computers known as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). It is an aircraft that operates without a human pilot onboard, controlled remotely by an operator or flying autonomously via GPS and sensors.
Its common uses are for aerial photography, filmmaking, surveillance, package delivery, agriculture and military operations.
Today, the superpowers, including China, are still using military strength in terms of the traditional method. For example, the Navy counts the number of ships and the Air Force, the number of aircraft. Even the Army counts the number of soldiers as its matrix to measure its military power.
The Philippines can learn the lessons from Iran and Ukraine in dealing with a superpower.