All systems go: Asean summit, Digong trial, Sara impeachment

As we enter May 2026, three events are all systems go for Filipinos. The three developments are defining moments:

One, the 2026 48th ASEAN Summit on May 7 and 8, in Cebu. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. is the host of the heads of state and/or of government of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Vietnam, with their theme, “Navigating Our Future Together.”

“All systems in place ahead of the regional leaders’ gathering in Cebu,” beamed palace spokesman Claire Castro. “The summit will be Ilocano way,” stressed First Lady Louise Araneta Marcos: bare bones, almost without frills but overwhelming with Filipino warmth, hospitality and seamless meetings done the ASEAN way.

Two, the trial of former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte for crime against humanity before the International Criminal Court in The Hague. It is the first time in ICC’s history an Asian leader is being tried for man’s inhumanity to man. Digong Duterte is accused of having killed between 6,200 and 30,000 victims during his time as mayor of Davao City and as president of the Philippines.

Three, the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Zimmerman Duterte. In February 2025, Sara became the first Philippine vice president to be impeached by the House of Representatives, by a vote of 215. With the House judiciary committee likely to conclude there is a probable cause to impeach Sara a second time, she will be the first VP to face an impeachment trial before the Senate.

Incidentally, the Manila Overseas Press Club (MOPC), Asia’s oldest press club and the most prestigious press club in the Philippines, has its “MOPC DFA Night” on April 30, 2026, 6 p.m. at the Fairmont Hotel Makati ballroom. Guest of honor and speaker is Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro. She is expected to discuss our hosting the ASEAN Summit, the Iran War, geopolitical issues as they impact on the Philippines, our foreign policy and economic diplomacy initiatives, energy and war resiliency policies and, of course, the West Philippine Sea issue with China.

Those interested may contact Dena of MOPC, 0920-204-9229, for booking. Seats are limited to encourage frank and open discussion.

The Cebu ASEAN Summit is Marcos Jr.’s opportunity to project himself as a world leader and for the Philippines to help define the region’s agenda for digital innovation, food and energy security and sustainable infrastructure.

The Philippines is ASEAN’s fourth largest economy, in dollar purchasing power parity – after Indonesia, $5.45 trillion; Vietnam, $2.03 trillion, Thailand, $1.96 trillion and Malaysia (a tie with Phl), $1.6 trillion. Singapore, with $789 billion, is far behind. Also, the Philippines is ASEAN’s second fastest growing economy, 5.5 percent (in 2027), after Vietnam, seven percent.

“Navigating” hits the mark as summit theme. Next to the Strait of Hormuz, three bodies of water affect ASEAN’s future – the West Philippine Sea, the Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait. The Strait of Malacca, together with the Singapore Strait, is the busiest shipping lane in the world. It connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans and handles 30 percent of global trade and 80 percent of China’s oil imports.

This year’s meeting of ASEAN leaders is probably the most important. Today’s challenges are not only geopolitical but existential.

The Iran war, on its 60th day by Tuesday, April 28, impacts on energy, food and safety and security of ASEAN countries and their nationals. It has triggered the largest and most severe energy supply disruption in history, with oil prices hitting $110 per barrel after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which constricted 20 percent of the world’s oil supply which in turn has resulted in shortages of products derived from oil – diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, plastics, petrochemicals and even natural gas and helium which is used in the manufacture of semiconductors – the brain of computers and artificial intelligence. Today, computers and AI run everything and affect the lifestyle of eight billion humans.

The 2026 war on Iran is the third major global oil crisis. The first was in 1973, with the oil embargo that quadrupled oil prices to $12 per barrel. The second was in 1979, after the Iranian Revolution that pushed oil prices to $32 per barrel.

In Digong Duterte’s case, the ICC has affirmed its jurisdiction (because the killings happened before March 17, 2019, the date Manila left the ICC as a member). The ICC has also confirmed ALL three counts of crime against humanity against Duterte.

The Pre-Trial Chamber I concluded that “there are substantial grounds to believe that Mr. Duterte is responsible for the crimes against humanity of murder and attempted murder, pursuant to article 7(1)(a) of the Rome Statute (ICC’s founding treaty). These crimes were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against a civilian population on the territory of the Republic of the Philippines between 1 November 2011 and 16 March 2019 in the context of the ‘war on drugs’ campaign.” The Pre-Trial Chamber I based its decision on the evidence and arguments presented by the Prosecutor and the Defense during the Feb. 23-27, 2026 confirmation of charges hearing.

Digong’s case moves to an ICC Trial Chamber for a full trial. “Trials at the ICC are fair and impartial, and the Defense will have sufficient time to prepare its case, while respecting the rights of victims,” said ICC.

ICC can take forever – eight years on average. During that time, Duterte remains in jail or dies in jail, way past the 2028 Philippine presidential elections. The Prosecution needs only to prove the murder of 78 Duterte victims to secure a guilty verdict.

The charges against VP Sara include misuse of confidential funds (P615 million), unexplained wealth (P6.7 billion passed through her bank accounts, incredible), corruption, murder (believable) and plotting to assassinate President Marcos Jr., the First Lady and then Speaker Martin Romualdez.

My forecast: the Senate will declare Sara guilty.

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