Bouncing back

Those massive crowds in Manila’s Divisoria area even on Sundays tell the story of Christmas 2022 in this country: we’ve bounced back dramatically from the crippling pandemic.

Even the malls are crowded again. Last Thursday I went to Greenbelt in Makati for lunch at Sentro 1771, to enjoy my favorite corned beef sinigang and coffee pie again after nearly three years, and the place was packed. So were most of the restaurants in the area. I don’t think it was just because it was the Immaculate Conception holiday.

In my neck of the woods, foot traffic is also back nearly 100 percent to pre-pandemic Christmas levels at the malls.

This is not to say that everything is getting better. Even in this fourth quarter, I have seen a number of commercial establishments that have shut down for good. Obviously, the owners no longer expected even holiday consumption to lift them from the doldrums. There are many commercial spaces waiting for tenants.

But I also see new shops, restaurants and other establishments opening. Robinsons Land executives attest to this.

Supermarkets and related businesses are fully recovered, according to Lance Gokongwei, president and CEO of JG Summit Holdings. Not all employees have returned to work in these sectors, however. As the head of a nationwide supermarket association said, their members rightsized during the COVID slowdown and improved efficiency.

The Gokongweis’ Cebu Pacific, however, has rehired many of those who lost their jobs when COVID grounded the airline industry.

Lance and his equally amiable elder sister Robina Gokongwei-Pe met with a group of journalists and media executives last Monday for a post-pandemic get-together.

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At the start of the lockdowns in 2020, Lance had a common answer when asked how he dealt with the devastation of the airline industry as COVID rampaged across the planet.

He would say, not entirely in jest, that he consoled himself by considering the problems besetting a sector that was even worse off: the cruise ship industry.

Commercial planes at least, he explained, sat empty and idle on the ground.

Many cruise ships, on the other hand, were stranded at sea for weeks and even months on end, with hundreds of thousands of seafarers and even paying passengers on board. Several cruise ships were not allowed to dock by countries worried about the spread of COVID. The fears were not baseless; the ships often carried infected passengers.

COVID patient numbers 1 and 2 in the Philippines (and first death) were Chinese tourists straight from SARS-CoV-2 city of origin Wuhan, who arrived on a ship that docked in Manila.

China began relenting on its zero-COVID policy only days ago, easing pandemic restrictions amid unprecedented public protests in the communist state and calls for President Xi Jinping’s resignation.

COVID cases have since spiked, so Xi might yet get to tell his compatriots, I told you so. In the meantime, according to independent reports, the COVID spike is spooking the Chinese, who are now voluntarily limiting their mobility and social interactions to avoid infection.

While the Chinese are now free to return to onsite work, they are still avoiding travel. Lance Gokongwei, who chairs Cebu Pacific, says the airline has so far recovered only about 60 percent of its pre-pandemic business, and the continuing travel aversion of the Chinese is among the major reasons.

But Lance expects 100 percent recovery by 2023, possibly by mid-year.

Real estate developers were also hit by the double whammy of the pandemic and the exodus of Philippine offshore gaming operator companies. The Gokongwei properties, however, were not heavily exposed to POGOs. Their tenants include business process outsourcing companies, which are typically long-term lessees.

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The Gokongwei Group recently launched together with Singapore-based Tyme the GoTyme Bank, one of six digital banks that obtained the central bank’s green light this year to operate in the Philippines. As of yesterday, GoTyme was expected to hit 100,000 account holders, according to its president and CEO Nate Clarke.

There are always headwinds in business. Lance says rising interest rates – which the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas implements to tame inflation – could dampen business expansion plans.

Being in the retail business, the Gokongweis also don’t want runaway inflation to dampen consumption. Robina, who is president and CEO of Robinsons Retail Holdings, says retail sales are approaching pre-pandemic levels, with recovery slowest in apparel.

Dressing down was the trend during the lockdowns. There were people who realized they had accumulated enough clothing to last their entire lifetime. People also didn’t want to try on clothes in cramped fitting rooms in department stores, so they instead shopped online.

But this is also changing as COVID fears ease. People prefer to feel fabric that they will wear, and to look at themselves wearing apparel before buying it. Returning ill-fitting clothes purchased online can also be a hassle.

Depending on purchasing power, clothing may be classified either as an essential or a non-essential commodity. People are back shopping in person for apparel.

Only spending power will limit shopping for clothes – and all other commodities, for that matter – this holiday season.

Raising that purchasing power is the challenge for the new administration. There are still millions of people made destitute by COVID and who are barely making ends meet in what is supposed to be a season of cheer.

Still, Christmas 2022 is going to be merrier than 2021. The challenge next year is to make Christmas 2023 so much better, for a whole lot more Filipinos.

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