Power game

I wrote a few weeks ago that I would stop writing so-called political analyses until I was more sure about what was really happening. I reached this conclusion when I was proven dead wrong about Mayor Sara Duterte’s objectives and possible plans.

I wrote that I was sure that Sara would run for president regardless of who else would be running for the position. Then I concluded that if she does not run for president, she would never run for vice president but would stay as mayor of Davao  City.

As mayor of Davao City she would have the power to develop a political bailiwick and even be the center of a regional bailiwick in Southern Mindanao. Any president would have to recognize her leadership in that region. That means she would retain some political clout.

As vice president she would either become an opposition leader or be at the political mercy of the president. She would have difficulty creating her own bailiwick without any patronage to dispense or powers to exercise. 

Then Sara defies all my logical analyses and declares she will run as vice president. She later announced she would support Marcos for president.

Assuming she has made some private arrangements with Marcos, she would know that political agreements are not really arrangements that you can bet your life on and cannot be trusted. After all, even within the Davao group, there were conflicts and accusations of betrayal.

For traditional political patronage, access to money and influence are the lifeblood of their staying in power.

There are rare exceptions in Philippine politics. Leni Robredo is leading a movement, not a traditional political campaign. Her supporters are fueled by an intensity that is very rare in political campaigns. Her followers and supporters are supporting her because of their faith in her candidacy. They will not ask for traditional promises of patronage or money. In fact, many of her supporters will be spending their own money for their own personal campaign for their candidate.

The typical Filipino campaign is actually a power game. Filipinos, like other people, are a nation of game players. From basketball to billiards to boxing to card games, we are preoccupied with winning games. Competition is in our daily lifestyle, whether we take part in the game or we participate vicariously. Rivalry is common in every sport and fans are often more fanatical than the actual players.

Even on television, games are very popular. In politics, like all games, there are the “players.” To be a player is to have some power or influence to be able to participate in the game. Not to be a player is to be out of the power loop and have no influence. Most people who are not players will look for a player that they can serve so that, at least, they can claim to other non-players that they also have an inside view of the game.

There are two ways of playing a game. The first is to have a strategy and long-term objectives. The second is simply to have objectives and just play the game without a strategy but simply react to events as they happen.

I am still trying to figure out what kind of game the major players are playing.

There are still some critical unknowns in this coming political struggle. One of the most important is the extent that President Duterte will go to  eliminate Marcos as a contender for the presidency. This question goes hand in hand with another question on how serious to make Bong Go win the presidency.

Some observers felt that the President simply wanted to be in a stronger bargaining position with the Marcoses. However, his recent attack on a presidential candidate who used or uses cocaine began to make me believe that President Duterte is seriously either planning either Bong Go or Sara Duterte to win the presidency. I think most people did not want to mention the presidential candidate publicly. However, I read a recent statement of the son of Marcos Jr., Sandro, attacking President Duterte for implicating his father. This is a go-signal for people to conclude that Marcos Jr. is the presidential candidate Duterte was referring to.

Except for these few observations about the power game, I still do not want to do any in-depth analysis because if the game players are simply reacting to events as they unfold, there is no way we can predict their future moves.

All the other candidates will be trying to win over President Duterte’s or Marcos’ political leaders if there is clear division. The big question is how Sara Duterte will react. Will she stick it out with Marcos or will she reconcile with her father?

In the meantime, Leni Robredo is the least affected by all these political maneuverings. She and her movement will continue reaching out and increasing their members.

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During this month of November declared as National Reading Month, the National Book Development Board, which exists to support the publishing industry and promote a culture of reading, is launching a much needed initiative, the Book Nook on Nov. 24. It is a reading and storytelling space with 1,500 Philippine published titles in indigenous and far flung communities.  Reading spaces – 52 for this year all over the country – have been created in nontraditional areas such as buses, public markets, wherever crowds congregate. This is a commendable undertaking that must be supported. Reading is a basic human right, not a privilege.

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