It was with hopeful optimism to note our country finished the year 2020 missing just by a few thousands the half a million cases of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that were previously projected by the OCTA research group of the University of the Philippines (UP). Surely, this would be highlighted by presidential spokesman Harry Roque. That is, if Roque has not done so far yet.
Roque has sort of engaged OCTA to a running numbers’ game over the latter’s projection at the rate of COVID-19 cases increases in the Philippines. By year-end, OCTA feared its total may reach 500,000 cases. This research group closely monitors COVID-19 cases independent from the Department of Health (DOH). From the official tally of the DOH, the COVID cases reached 476,796 and sadly with 9,244 deaths total by the last day of 2020.
Based from the World Health Organization (WHO) monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic, the Philippines ranked 29th among the 223 most affected countries and territories. This, despite having the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of the Emerging and Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID) – in charge of the Philippine government’s pandemic response measures – regularly calibrating community quarantines and health protocols against the COVID-19 contagion.
Just last week, President Rodrigo Duterte approved the IATF recommendation to re-impose travel restrictions on 20 countries led by the United Kingdom (UK) where the latest COVID-19 variant has caused a resurgence of the deadly virus. The IATF last Friday subsequently added the United States (US) after reporting two COVID patients that were found infected with UK variant. Both the US and UK remain in the top three list of the WHO with highest COVID cases.
This is not surprising given the laxity of the American people to use face masks, and ignore other anti-COVID protocols. I had a balikbayan friend from New York who flew to Manila two weeks before New Year. Living in the epicenter of the COVID pandemic in the US, my friend told me that he observes at his New York home the minimum health protocols being implemented in the Philippines.
In fact, it was the first time he got swab testing upon arrival at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport. While waiting for his swab test, he checked in to a designated quarantine hotel in Metro Manila to isolate self. It was only on the next day that he got a negative result for COVID-19 that he met with his family here. But he has never undergone any COVID testing while in New York, not even before he boarded the aircraft that took him back to Manila for 16 hours of flight.
So really, there is clear and present danger of local transmissions from these countries of origin of foreign travellers like those coming from the US.
This is rather unfair to us in the Philippines. We strictly implement anti-COVID protocols while the other countries could not care less if their nationals travel elsewhere without first checking if they are pandemic carriers. The travel restriction on these 21 countries, however, does not apply to returning overseas Filipino workers (OFWs). But they must go through the mandatory 14-day isolation whether or not tested negative for COVID-19 free of charge at the government-run quarantine facility at New Clark Athletes Village in Angeles City, Pampanga.
While we were lucky to miss the half-a-million mark predicted by the OCTA research group, we still greeted the first day of the new year with 1,765 additional new COVID-19 cases. But the tally did not include yet those swab tested by eight laboratories that failed to submit on time their data to the DOH. Still, the total tally as of yesterday remains a few thousands shy from OCTA projected cases.
Nonetheless, DOH Secretary Francisco Duque III, who chairs the IATF, has not ruled out yet the possible resurgence of COVID-19 cases. The IATF has yet to account the direct results of the feared holiday spreader events from Christmas to New Year celebrations. The pandemic obviously did not stop us Filipinos from our traditional family reunions despite IATF’s advisory against gathering of more than ten people in one enclosed place at a prolonged period of time.
On the second day of the new year, there were 1,097 confirmed cases with five deaths reported. The seeming downtrend in COVID numbers is largely due to fewer people being tested and some laboratories temporarily closing their services during the holiday period. So this is rather artificial.
The real test comes in within the next two weeks or 14 days after the incubation period of the COVID-19 virus or its mutation.
Since there is no confirmed case here yet of the UK variant, President Duterte has retained the general community quarantine (GCQ) all over Metro Manila and similarly situated areas around the country up to Jan. 31. This is because COVID-19 cases in these areas remain high.
During the emergency IATF meeting held at Malacañang last Dec. 26, invited health and medical expert told the President it is not a question of “if” the UK variant might arise in the Philippines but more of a question of “when” it breaks out. One of them, Dr. Edsel Salvaña from the UP-National Institute of Health, recalled the Philippines had the surge of COVID cases in June last year that was actually traced to a new variant D614G from Europe. “And this was actually worse. It was three to nine times more infectious than the original virus,” Salvaña noted.
“So basically, what I am saying is this not the first time we’re facing a variant. We know how to deal with it. And also, that surveillance is really key to making sure that our vaccines, once they get here, remain effective,” Salvaña cited.
The surveillance job that will be given to the new task force of epidemiologists and other infectious disease experts that President Duterte will create and announce its composition in tonight’s IATF regular meeting. “It’s not intervention. It’s really interdiction (and) how the local governments would also help us,” the President pointed out.
As of this writing though, the new game plan is still a work in progress.