OCTA backs easing Metro Manila to Alert Level 2

MANILA, Philippines — It is safe to reopen more businesses in Metro Manila now that the capital region is at "low risk" for COVID-19, OCTA Research said Monday. 

OCTA Research fellow Guido David in a public briefing said he and other members of the panel "support the relaxing [of restrictions] to Alert Level 2" in NCR come mid-November. He cautioned that this should be done "in a safe manner," with the public avoiding large gatherings and congregations and continuing to abide by minimum health standards. 

"Of course, for the alert level system, what we use there is the metrics of the Department of Health and the [pandemic task force]," David said. "So, they will be the one to recommend an easing to Alert Level 2. But based on our reading of the data, it is actually safe to reopen our business at this time." 

The new alert level system first piloted in Metro Manila is based on the virus transmission rate, hospital bed utilization rate and intensive care utilization rate of a city or municipality.

David said NCR's positivity rate for the virus is at 5%, "an ideal number recommended by the World Health Organization." He also cited the region's "very low" average daily attack rate, with most local government units reporting ADARs below 7. 

Hospital utilization in NCR is at 30%, he added, while intensive care unit utilization is at 39%. 

"These are very low numbers," David noted. "Maybe in Metro Manila, we have LGUs whose ICU utilization is high at around 60% but that’s because other hospitals are preferred hospitals and that's where people choose to be admitted." 

David also cited the high inoculation rate in the region where, based on government data seen by OCTA, 96% of adults have [received] a first dose of the vaccine, and more than 80% of adults are fully vaccinated. "This means that the chance of resurgence is lower now that many are protected in Metro Manila." 

What changes under Alert Level 2? 

Under Alert Level 2, most businesses are allowed to operate. Exceptions to this are casinos, horse racing, cockfighting and operation of cockpits, lottery and betting shops, and other gaming establishments which can only open under Alert Level 2 with special permission from the Office of the President.

Other activities that the government has placed restrictions on are allowed at 50% indoor venue capacity for fully-vaccinated individuals and at 70% outdoor venue capacity.

This includes limited face-to-face classes for basic education, also subject to the president's approval.

Movement restrictions are still left up to local governments to determine based on age and comorbidities. Those not covered by these mobility restrictions are allowed to move in areas of the same or different community quarantine classification, subject to reasonable regulations of the LGU of destination.

Metro Manila is under Alert Level 3 until November 14. The business sector has been pushing for an easing of restrictions, citing the decline in cases, since last month. — with a report from Xave Gregorio 

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