No cyclones in next few days – PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines — Apart from rains from the northeast monsoon and thunderstorms, no tropical cyclone is expected to affect the flood-hit Philippines in the next three to five days, the state weather bureau said yesterday.

Benison Estareja, weather specialist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said the northeast monsoon would continue to bring light to moderate rains over Northern Luzon, including Cagayan and Isabela, which experienced massive flooding due to water discharged by Magat Dam in the past days.

“Based on our observation and the forecast models we use, there is a slim chance of tropical cyclone development this week,” Estareja said.

He said Metro Manila and the rest of the country would experience fair weather aside from brief rains due to thunderstorms.

As of 6 a.m. yesterday, only one spillway gate – from seven – in Magat Dam remained open, releasing 834 cubic meters per second through a two-meter gate opening.

The water level at Magat Dam, located in Isabela, was at 192.15 meters, just 0.01 meter below its normal high water level of 193 meters.

Meanwhile, Estareja said two to four more cyclones are predicted to enter the Philippine area of responsibility before the end of 2020.

He said one more cyclone is likely to enter by the end of this month, and two or three cyclones in December.

“Cyclones that enter the country in November and December have high chances of landfalling in Luzon or Visayas or even Caraga region,” Estareja said.

He said the local names of the next cyclones are Vicky, Warren, Yoyong and Zozimo.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippines every year.

So far, 21 cyclones have entered the country this year, including Typhoon Quinta, Super Typhoon Rolly and Typhoon Ulysses, which successively hit the country in the past two months, leaving scores of people dead and billions of pesos worth of damage to agriculture and infrastructure.