Fewer Pinoys think peace pact with MILF possible

MANILA, Philippines - Fewer Filipinos are optimistic that a peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) would be achieved during the term of President Aquino, a recent survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) showed.

The SWS poll, conducted from Dec. 3 to 7 last year, found nearly four in 10 respondents or 38 percent think a deal would be reached during the term of Aquino, down from 52 percent in September.

The poll also showed 62 percent of Filipinos expressing hope that a peace pact would be reached.

The latest figure was lower than the 71 percent and 83 percent recorded in September and in June last year, respectively.

The independent survey research institution did not cite reasons for the decline.

Of the 62 percent who were optimistic on a peace deal, 29 percent were “very hopeful” and 33 percent were “somewhat hopeful,” down from September’s 26 percent and 45 percent, respectively.

The “somewhat not hopeful,” on the other hand, stayed at 15 percent while the “not hopeful at all” rose to 24 percent from 14 percent previously.

By region, those “very hopeful” increased in most areas except Mindanao, while those “not hopeful at all” rose in all areas, the SWS said.

Those who said they were “very hopeful” increased by 10 points to 30 percent in balance Luzon, four points to 24 percent in Metro Manila and a point to 26 percent in the Visayas. However, it fell by 12 points to 32 percent in Mindanao.

Those who were “not hopeful at all” increased by 15 points to 37 percent in the Visayas, 13 points to 22 percent in Mindanao, 11 points to 24 percent in Metro Manila and six points to 19 percent in balance Luzon.

The respondents were also asked when they expect a peace deal between the government and the MILF to be signed. One in 10 or 12 percent chose 2011-2013, down from 13 percent in September.

Nearly three in 10 of the respondents or 26 percent expect it to be signed between 2014 and 2016, down from 39 percent previously.

SWS said the proportion of respondents optimistic on a peace agreement during Aquino’s term fell by 14 points to 38 percent.

Those who favored 2016-2022 dropped to 19 percent from 20 percent, while the “not ever” group increased to 40 percent from 24 percent.

By region, those in Mindanao remained the most optimistic of a deal by 2013, although the number was down by eight points to 16 percent, the SWS said.

The number, however, increased by two points to 14 percent in Metro Manila, two points to 12 percent in balance Luzon and three points to nine percent in the Visayas.

Those favoring 2014-2016, the final three years of the Aquino administration, were also the most numerous in Mindanao at 48 percent (down seven points), followed by balance Luzon (41 percent, down nine), Metro Manila (33 percent, down 17) and the Visayas (25 percent, down 26 points).

Those who think the next government will finalize the deal rose five points to 26 percent in balance Luzon but fell six points to 17 percent in Metro Manila, a point to 14 percent in the Visayas and eight points to 13 percent in Mindanao.

A majority of those who said a deal would never happen were from Visayas (58 percent, up by 28 points), followed by Metro Manila (48 percent, up 26 points), Mindanao (36 percent, up 16 points) and balance Luzon (32 percent, up eight points).

No consensus was reached during negotiations held last March 19 to 21 in Malaysia.

The SWS survey, published in the newspaper BusinessWorld yesterday, used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults nationwide. It utilized sampling error margins of plus or minus three percentage points for national and plus or minus six percentage points for area percentages.

P-Noy determined to end conflict

Despite the survey findings, the administration remains committed to end all internal armed conflict in the country before President Aquino’s term expires in 2016, according to Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Deles.

Deles said the government understands that the people grow more anxious as time passes without an agreement.

She said the government peace panel headed by Marvic Leonen has now reached the heart of the peace engagement despite some very difficult issues laid down on the negotiating table.

“Issues of political settlement are now being tackled with no more recourse to generalities or ambiguity,” Deles said.

She said Aquino intends to implement any agreement that his government will sign with “no false promises.”

“Thus, negotiations are thorough and rigorous and there will be no quick fixes,” Deles said, as she urged the Filipino people to continue to support the peace process.

“Let us keep the faith and stay the course for the peace our people, especially those most affected by conflict, aspire for and which we all deserve,” she said, adding that both parties are determined to stay at the negotiating table. – With Jose Rodel Clapano